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Category: CFO

Being a CFO. Some of my thoughts and observations after years of being a CFO

Responding to a comment letter from the SEC

imageThere is a particular circular logo that always worries even the most experienced CFO. It is a simple logo and it means that the SEC has looked at your filings and has some questions. If the letter is something as serious as a Wells Notice, then you need to engage with your outside counsel right away and I can’t really give advice as I am not a lawyer.

Comment letters are a lot more common. You can expect that your filings will be reviewed every 2-3 years and every special filing you make (like an S-1) will draw a comment letter every time. They are common, and the typical result is improved disclosure the next time you do a filing. A bad outcome is the need to restate which can have significant personal and valuation of the company repercussions. A disaster is a Wells Notice and a full legal investigation.

When I first started, responding to a comment letter was much more difficult and you needed to rely much more heavily on your auditors and your lawyers as they had many examples of responses from their client base and you typically had nothing except for anything you had done yourself or within your company in the past. Ever since the SEC made comment letter responses available online, you should be much more capable of answering them yourself or with a lot less help from your outside advisors.

Here is my general advice on what to do when you receive a comment letter.

As a general comment, you are dealing with very experienced accounting and legal professionals at the SEC. The team that reviews filings and comments on them tend to be very experienced accountants and lawyers who read and comment on filings for a living. Their letter is reviewed by even more experienced staff before it is sent to you. The SEC monitors trends and usually every year there are specific areas of accounting and disclosure that get extra questions for just about every filer that it applies to. Unless you do actually have a very severe issue, there pretty much is no intent to “get you”. I have found 100% of the SEC staff I have worked with over the years to be professional and courteous and generally helpful where they can be helpful. They tend to be pretty flexible where they can be.

Expect an iterative process. There was one pretty long letter that I responded to that the SEC accepted all my answers the first time, but usually is takes 2-3 rounds of replies with more questions.

The first thing you need to do is read it through at least once. You don’t need to fully understand or do any deep research at this point, but make sure that you and your Controller have read the comment letter and have a general idea of what is in it and what the main questions seem to be. You will be very quickly involving others in the process, and they will be relying on you, so make sure that you know how serious the letter appears to be. It usually is pretty easy to identify the most important questions, as the examiner normally makes them pretty clear. There might be a question or two that are trickier and if answered the wrong way will cause a spiral into more questions and a much higher chance of restating.

Now inform your boss and the audit committee. This should be done quickly, your process of reading and getting a general understanding should not take long at all and you need to treat every comment letter with a sense of urgency. It is a good idea to inform your lawyers and auditors immediately and I advise that you copy legal counsel on your communications where appropriate as it is possible that the comment letter will result in legal action against your firm or you personally. The SEC does not allow you to use them as a direct legal defense and your work on replying to a comment letter can be discoverable if not protected. If you are not sure what that means and how to protect yourself and your company, seek legal advice.

I always have a very strong sense of ownership of what we file. I have always found that my reporting is better after I get and respond to an SEC comment letter. You will be engaging and using outside help, but you own the comment letter responses just like you own the filings you did. Do not allow the outside advisors to take over the process. They are not always on your side. If something needs to be restated, or if more serious issues come up, they may also have the agenda of protecting themselves. Remember that auditors commonly get sued as well if accounting issues come up from an SEC review. That means that they are very much on your side until they are not. Chances are pretty good that it will not be an issue but do remember that they have their own priorities and that may mean protecting their business just like you are trying to protect yourself and your company.

Now that your boss and the Audit Committee are informed, you should have also formed a small team to actually answer the comment letter. You need to divide up the comments and delegate them to the people best able to answer the questions (and this may be you). Personally, I think the company should write the first draft of all the responses but you may not have the expertise. If you do not, remember it because you have a skill set hole in your company that may need to be fixed later after the comment letter process is done.

Now that the SEC has made other comment letter responses public, you should be able to find the same questions answered by other companies. There is no rule against using other responses word for word. No such thing as plagiarism or copyright when reviewing SEC submissions. If you check competitors or similar companies and they have identical questions, then you know that those questions are focus areas for the SEC this cycle. Look at the answer(s) that the SEC accepted in the past and consider if the same answers or something very close also applies to you.

I cannot emphasize this enough. Prior SEC filings are a huge resource and you should absolutely use them to guide your answers. There are no prizes for brilliance and answering every question yourself with completely original answers.

Dire warnings aside about making sure you understand the risk that outside advisors may have their own agenda, your auditors are a very good resource. If you are using a Big 4 firm, then their SEC advisory group will have people that recently worked at the SEC. They probably have other clients who have received comment letters from your examiner and have more personal read on his or her style. When it comes to very technical accounting questions, your technical partner can be a big help in drafting a response that cites the correct and most compelling parts of GAAP.

I personally like my responses to be direct and to the point. Sometimes your advisors like to toss in introductory phrases like “we respectfully submit”. I never answer like that. Many times the comment letter asks you to enhance your disclosure in the future. Unless the suggestion has some fundamental error in it (which I have never found in any comment letter I have received), the correct response is to say that in future filings you will do what is requested. List out what was requested and what you agreed to. When the SEC asks for support for your current accounting, provide it in a straightforward manner. Your examiner will have several open files and comment letters they are responsible for. The more clearly you write and the more simply you write, the easier you will make it for them.

One final resource is the examiner themselves. Sometimes their questions are not very clear. You are allowed to call them up and talk to them. Like your written answers, you need to be careful what you discuss with them, but as I said earlier, they are not out to “get you”. They are limited in what they can answer. You cannot run a response by them, all responses must be submitted in writing and they can only respond in writing. However, they can clarify what a question means. You can call them and let them know that you are on a tight deadline for a filing and that you would appreciate them working as fast as possible. Sometimes it can help to have a personal relationship when they have to make a final call on an accounting item. If you are more than just text on paper, maybe something will go your way. I know that it even helps me to respond when I have a voice to go with the words on the paper.

Before you send in your response, give it one last read through. Make sure all responses follow the standard format of repeating their question and then responding. Make sure you are sure the questions are actually responded to. Double check the wording to make sure it is direct and clear. Make sure each one has enough detail but not too much that it clouds your answer. If you see an answer that disagrees with a disclosure request, ask yourself why you are not just agreeing to the additional disclosure. Sometimes if you agree then you are actually agreeing to accounting that you do not think is right, but normally fighting over disclosure requirements is just not worth it.

There is an almost certain chance that you will receive another comment letter on your responses that focus on the questions that either were not fully answered or where the examiner disagrees with you or feels that there is insufficient support for your answer. If they disagree, then you are starting to have a problem. You need to be extremely careful with any question in the second set of comments because those are the ones that the examiner is most interested in.

Hopefully you will make it through the response process with nothing more than agreeing to improve disclosures in future filings. Don’t forget to actually improve disclosures when you agree to it. It should be part of your reporting checklist to ensure that you disclose what you agreed to and how you agreed to.

“Smoothing” your numbers

As you advance up the ladder in your Finance career, it is almost certain that you will arrive at a level of responsibility for the numbers where your judgment become key in determining outcomes. At the same time, you will be confronted with one of the two most common issues – numbers not being smooth or what looks like a temporary operations issues that can be fixed by some smart accounting.

There is no requirement to qualify for sainthood while being a CFO. You are part of the management and public image of the company, and investors and employees are relying on you properly present the historical results of the company and the expected future performance. You do not have to be the most conservative person in the country and report and book every possible downside and flagellate yourself publicly over every single misstep. Honesty is important but you also need maturity and respect for your audience. No one expects that you were perfect or that you will be perfect. Being overly optimistic is not good but being overly pessimistic is also a problem. Your investors will be expecting a fair accounting of results and possibilities so they can make choices in who to invest in. An immature management team that does not promote their company somewhat will result in an additional valuation hit because of a perception that management is not strong and does not believe in their company. Even in bad times, if you are still there with the rest of the management team, you must believe that you are part of the solution.  Therefore, mention the issues but focus on the solutions.

I can give a specific example from earlier in my career. The GAAP accounting for stock options granted to employees used to make expensing the options optional. This was an option that Silicon Valley companies did not take. Almost no companies expensed options, but Silicon Valley greatly depended on options and fought against changing the accounting. During that time, I believed that they should be expensed. In accounting discussions with other accountants, I would question the basis for not expensing them. Even with my strong belief that they should be expensed, I did not do it in the books I was responsible for. It simply was not the accepted practice and it was proper under GAAP to not expense options. There was absolutely no reason to “punish” my company compared to others just because I could get on my high horse about the proper accounting for options. Once GAAP changed, technology companies either reported non-GAAP numbers without the options expense or they provide the information so outside analysts could do the same. I provided the information just like others in the industry did because investors expected it.

This is actually an important concept to understand. US GAAP is very specific in many ways but judgment is still a key foundation on the accounting that is done. As I explained in an earlier entry on when I would do a prerelease, the SEC and FASB have both put judgment calls firmly on the shoulders of management. As the CFO, you will be making most of the calls. Other management team members including your boss will come to you with transactions they would like to get booked. You can wrap yourself in a holy mantle of GAAP and always say no, or you can listen to what they are trying to do and try and find a solution.

This brings me back to the original choice I started with. The world is random and bumpy. Investors prefer smooth results that fit an easy to understand framework. Closing the books means making a lot of accruals and valuation judgments and it is really easy to smooth everything out. Be very careful here. Sometimes GAAP really does result in smoother results. If you have a constant production base and higher demand at the end of the year and less at the beginning, you can naturally smooth out the unit cost by building inventory at the beginning of the year and thereby absorbing overhead that otherwise might be expensed and then not overdriving production at the end of the year and over absorbing overhead which results in lower unit costs. You essentially borrow the good news at the beginning of the year and repay it at the end of the year. The accounting matches actual production and you do incur a risk of falling costs at the end of the year or dropped demand meaning your working capital investment may not pay off in better over all results, but the results will be smoother.

Then there is the actual issue that sometimes business just doesn’t match arbitrary quarter end boundaries. It really should not make much difference in the valuation of your company is a deal actually closes January 1 instead of December 31, especially if it was supposed to close earlier and you and rest of the management team forecasted it in good faith to close before December 31. It shouldn’t, but it does. Even if your business does not have big contracts, there might be a snow storm or a flood at your main warehouse and you may miss a week of shipments right at at quarter end. Even in a regular quarter, you may run into a shipping bottleneck and customer orders may not make it out in time even though they were ready.

Sometimes the plant operations group misses their cost takeout targets. Could be an operational issue or maybe the market just didn’t correct quite fast enough but should be ok a few months from now. The shortfall easily can be made up via a slight change in inventory valuation.

Believe it or not, sometimes you get too much good news. A big customer moves up an order and suddenly this quarter is way exceeding goals. Currency moves in the right way and your gross margin now exceeds expectations. Of course, now the next quarter doesn’t look quite as good in comparison and you are wondering if you should burn some of the current good news to smooth out the next few quarters?

Finally, you can often see an issue coming a quarter or two in advance. Does it look like your sales team is making the quarter numbers more and more by borrowing from the next quarter? Did you start this quarter with a vacuum of sales and opportunities because most were recognized the quarter before? Did costs go up and a lot of the cheaper inventory from a prior quarter get used up? If so, expect results that are not smooth or within expectations are probably coming soon.

Like all good CFOs, you probably has a few accounting ideas or changes in the back of your mind that you have been thinking about for a while. Maybe just some tidying up of some overaccruals from prior quarters. Maybe a tweak in inventory accounting that you have been considering. Is this the time you should step in and do it?

I was given some very good advice by a boss early in my career when I had the first exposure to being able to suggest accounting changes. He told me “Never solve an operational problem by moving it onto the balance sheet. All you do is make an Operations problem a Finance problem and when it does come off the balance sheet no one will remember that you were a hero in the past.  You defer changes that might be needed and hide the problem so it might not get priority.” This came from someone that I considered to be a very good accountant who had championed a change in accounting that resulted in a better results for a decade into the future. I had also suggested an accounting charge at the start of the planning process (salvage value) that was accepted by him as a good idea to be implemented. The advice was not by someone that was not able to look for better and more accurate accounting, but from someone that had already made that mistake himself and seen others going it in the past and where he wanted to warn me of the consequences.

So now I always replay that advice in my mind when making a quarter end accounting judgment call. Is Sales now asking about bill and hold after the quarter has already ended to handle that inventory that did not make it over the finish line, or was this planned in advance and did the request come in before quarter end and is documented properly? Is cost higher than hoped for and your COO is looking for more expenses to capitalize into inventory to make the target? Did you just figure out that you beat expectations and now you are looking for extra reasons to boost up reserves that you felt were adequate last quarter or even last week?

I have not been afraid my whole career to make sure that our accounting is as advantageous as the accounting in my industry normally is. However, that good advice early in my career when I was at AlliedSignal still sticks to me. I don’t think that any CFO doesn’t know when the are pushing the accounting too hard.

Try to remember that no one really will think you are a hero today. That entry will be in the background and you will not get any credit for it. Remember that your boss and the rest of the management team will not remember why you capitalized those items a year ago, they will just be mad that you are expensing them now. Remember that your integrity is even more on display when you publish the numbers to the outside world. If you push the accounting too hard you could lose standing with your auditors, if there is an operations blow up and a miss and you get sued, it will come out in discovery later. If the rest of the management team gets cynical about the reported numbers, then they may start messing with them without you even getting involved.

Do the right thing for your company. Try and get the best accounting results where it makes sense and is part of a plan in advance. Otherwise, don’t try and fight the random world too much by double entry bookkeeping. Life is not smooth. Expectations do get exceeded or missed sometimes. Make sure that investors who do their work can at least rely on you and your numbers.

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Some books on the effects of “Number Smoothing”

Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst

The Number: How the Drive for Quarterly Earnings Corrupted Wall Street and Corporate America

The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron

Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports, 3rd Edition

How I approach the outlook section in an earnings release

Every quarter, investors pour over actual results and react to a company’s guidance. Before it appears in the press release, I have to work out what is should be. I often see retail investors wonder where the numbers come from and if companies sandbag or otherwise fool around with guidance. So I decided to write a post on the process I have followed to first support the process when I was a Controller and then to help decide as a CFO.

Helping to decide is important to remember. It is easy to get a little ahead of yourself as CFO during the earnings and forecasting process. Take a deep breath and remember that you are part of a senior management team. Remember that there are two types of forecasts, lucky and wrong, and that the longer period of time being forecasted the higher chance you have of being wrong.

I start my outlook process by asking questions and listening. Of course, I keep up with the business as best I can during the quarter, but the reporting process is where you get to ask questions and explain. Take advantage of that and start to form an idea of the opportunities and threats that are coming up.

I am going to assume that you have a reasonable forecasting system for revenue and cost that you are able to rely on to make management decisions. How the actual forecasting is done is not really relevant (Gaussian Cupola or whatever wizardry is used), you just need something that has proven it works in the past. Units, ASP, expected costs, any expected deviations from your normal SG&A spending. Some form of view on what effect foreign currency is likely to have.

You should use the information from your forecasting system to build a draft forecasted financial statement. This is the raw and preliminary numbers that I rely on to start the judgment process of the outlook I eventually publish. Using that first set of numbers, I start to work through a standard checklist of accuracy items (not judgment yet):

1) Revenue – usually the internal forecast is good at predicting when the goods will ship. What is not considered is when you can recognize it. Double check that. Look at the terms being used and any carry-over from the prior period. Be careful with percentage of completion and double check the reasonableness of the calculation. Make sure that items that require contract analysis have been reviewed and that the terms allow revenue recognition as hoped for. Make sure any inter-company sales are properly treated.
2) COGS – usually you get the latest cost numbers from the factory, but that probably is not what will show up in GAAP. Very often their numbers do not include warranty reserves, equity compensation, inventory reserves and potential equipment write-offs (which may need to go into COGS). If costs are rising or falling there will be a lag as production runs through inventory so make sure that is accounted for. Any inter-company profit in inventory that needed to be eliminated? Inter-company items are often overlooked, so check that again.
3) SG&A – talk through the numbers and see if there are unusual things happening this quarter and make sure the numbers are there. If there is a risk of a large A/R write-off or a large fee that is being paid that quarter that needs to be expensed, make sure it is included. Think about bonus accrual catch-ups, if you are beating or missing bonus targets is there a risk that an adjustment to the accrual will be triggered this quarter. Are there large asset write downs, big A/R wrote-offs that could happen or other such one time items? If so, are they in the forecast (of course, if you are so sure that it will happen, ask why is it not recorded in the about to be reported quarter). These type of forecasts are often just run-rate extrapolations, so make sure any effect of adding or selling a business recently was thought through and recorded.
4) Interest and other charges – normally this should be about the same as prior quarters. Double check to make sure any changes or expected changes are reflected in the numbers. Usually companies do not forecast specific foreign exchange swings but if there already has been a large one or a large one is likely you probably should be modeling here.
5) Taxes – typically this is just a forecasted percentage, but work through the logic of the forecast. Did the country mix change since the prior quarter or since the percentage was last set? If so, you may need a different rate and should let people know to change their rate.
6) EPS – double check the diluted EPS calculation. If you recently added convertible bonds, check to make sure the EPS is on an “if converted” basis. Most people just assume that there only is dilution if the bond is in the money and that is not the way the share count is determined for convertible bonds. If you are close to a trigger point for a large tranche of options to go in the money, consider reminding the reader of that. If they have been outstanding long enough to be vested and around for several periods there may be enough added in to swing the EPS calculation.

That is not an exhaustive list. Companies that sell software and other service type contracts need a robust revenue recognition review process for both actuals and forecasts. The list above is all for accuracy before discussing with the greater team. It is all fine and nice to be a strategic CFO but if the base numbers are all wrong then no one will listen to your business ideas.

If you do find errors during the forecast review, go back and fix what did not work in your process. Double check the actuals as the same people usually work on actual and forecast and if the forecast has an error, the actuals might as well. Reporting is a process and you need process controls and feedback into the process.
I am sure that some people started reading this blog and we’re hoping that I would talk about what system to use, what IT tool I recommend relying on. I am always concerned about over reliance on tools and not enough review and finance judgment being applied. A good tool poorly used just gets you the wrong answer faster. There are quite a few good tools out there and I generally recommend that you use one that works well with your existing accounting and consolidation system. Most of my experience is using the Hyperion suite of tools (Oracle product now but used to be independent), but I have used others as well. Even simple excel spreadsheets can work depending on your business. I do think that if the Excel spreadsheets get too big, the risk of formula errors also grows too much.

So now you have a forecast (I tend to have an income statement and balance sheet ready with a cash forecast from another process as well). You now move to the validation and judgment phase. Share the forecast with a small number of senior executives and start the discussion with them. Do not over rely on email. Call them up and talk through the forecast.

Go through each section with them and make sure they understand what assumptions are being used. Then listen. They know their area of the business better than you. The COO probably just heard that there is a part shortage and production will not be able to hit the cost target or the volume target. The SBU business head might have just come from a customer meeting as has good news. Take notes and ask clarifying questions but now is not the time to be pushing back or disagreeing. If you go into target mode and start arguing why results need to be better, you probably will shut down conversation and miss something.

One of the people you should be talking to now is your boss. The CEO will have even more insights into business conditions and the two of you will be making the public commitment. Review the different options from the management team, weighing factors like personalities, some people are too conservative and some are too optimistic. Reach a conclusion about what you will commit to in the quarter or year to come or whatever period the public outlook will be. Make sure the targets needed to hit the goals are rolled out to the people that need to execute.

One of the last things you need to decide on is the range of expected results you will disclose. You need to pick a range that is typical for the metrics you will be disclosing. I get asked very often if I set the range lower so we can easily achieve it and then “beat” the numbers. In my whole career I have not followed that strategy. It becomes very obvious over time if you do that consistently and analysts will start setting their own much more aggressive expectations. You are essentially lying to your investors about your real expectations and trust in management is often a key metric for investors. You also are advertising less than what you can do and if your competition does not under call as well, you will suffer in comparison.

Never set expectations you know you cannot meet or that would take perfect execution, but do not be afraid to set your own internal goals as the public expectation. If you miss or beat them, know why and explain it. If you set reasonable expectations that a good effort should have achieved and you miss, do not try and hide the fact that you missed. Be honest and outline what will happen in the future to avoid surprises and underperformance. If your internal process to arrive at the number was bad, fix that process. If you set expectations that are way too high, you may get a short term bump in share price but you will be reporting actuals in 3 more months and you will lose in trust much more than what you gained in the short term. Be confident, but not overly rosy or arrogant.

Pay attention to the text explaining the numbers to ensure that there is no disconnect.  If you expect conditions to be tough, make sure the text reflects that.  If you are setting another record, acknowledge it.

In the end, there is no magic formula. You need to do your best and make your best judgment. Make sure your process is robust and repeatable. Be inclusive of your finance team and the senior management team. Don’t sweat it too much, a miss or beat is news for maybe ½ a day if it is a slow news day.

Who to blame for the 2008 financial crisis?

Hamilton was good enough that I did a review just on it alone, but I recently saw The Big Short as well and decided to write something on both of them.

My background is accounting and finance and I like history a lot. When I moved from Canada to the USA, I decided I had to read up and study American history to get a better understanding of it. Simplistically, I was not really against the British in the American Revolution (Canada certainly is Loyalist) and the Civil War was just the good guys who were anti-slavery against the bad guys who were slavers. I delved somewhat into the Founding Fathers and the Constitution and tried to understand the first few Presidents and how their terms effected the USA. However, that was 20+ years ago.

When the financial crisis bloomed in 2008 (it had been growing for a while before that), many of my friends either were personally hurt by it or people close to them were hurt by it. When people are hurt they usually get angry or scared or both. People who are angry or scared tend not to think well, and they want to react. They need to blame and attack something. Bankers make a good target.

The Big Short and Hamilton both share the same great strength. They take what can be very dry history and they make it very interesting. By the time you finish watching The Big Short you have learned the tools that were used to both make the small problem into a catastrophe and to profit off of it. Hamilton has the battles and such of the Revolution there, but through song and comedy it really shows us the power of ideas and what happens when great men with powerful ideas are at a fulcrum point in history.

So, I bet even before you watched The Big Short, you knew that the bankers were at fault based on politics and news for the past decade or so. They were corrupt. They were greedy. They were liars. And the movie reinforced it. So funny and witty to see the heroes of the movie realize the illusion that everyone was living in. The stripper with all the houses and loans and the real estate agent talking about a gully when there actually was a cliff. The bankers laughing and smirking at our heroes as they made money and tried to pretend that the bets they made were not bad even when there was no denying that they were.

All a consistent message that those banks were the ones to blame and of course where there are banks there are bankers.

Personally, I find it funny that heroes worked for 3 hedge funds. Normally hedge funds are villains too in popular press and politics. In the story, they were smart and right and made a fortune, they took a noble stand and stuck to their beliefs even when others around them doubted them and scorned them. It made for a great film, but I hope everyone knows that hedge funds often are the main financing source for movies and that they just might have a small reason why they would fund and fill up a movie with A-list stars that just so happens to show the hedge funds were the only heroes in a time of greed and evil. It also ignored all the hedge funds that lost a fortune then.

I am going to write some posts in the CFO/Finance Tuesday posts on some of the tools used and I am also going to discuss corporate governance. Discussing tools and basic corporate governance is not really worth the effort without a basic criteria being met. You cannot use tools and make decisions without critical judgment and the ability and desire to do a little research on the item you are making a decision or judgment on.

You may be shocked to learn this, but it was not the bankers and their CDO that caused the crisis. It was you and me. We wanted to own our own houses. We have wanted to have our very own place to own and live since before the country even came into existence. We have voted in people that would facilitate that for generations. All those bankers and government people, they are us. Our neighbors. People we do business with and who probably have helped us all our lives (credit cards are a banking innovation).

The base laws that were changed and pushed us over the edge were passed by Bill Clinton with a Republican Congress. He repealed the Glass-Steagall Act that kept different banking functions separated and controlled the size of banks (which at the time was viewed as making American banks less competitive on the world stage). He also signed the Community Reinvestment Act that placed additional pressure on lending into low income areas. He signed a law that removed federal regulation on some credit swaps that became important leverage tools that later blew up.

Clinton and the Republican congress are not solely to blame, of course. There are whole books on this but essentially laws were passed that made possible to have the Federal government guarantee mortgages. Mortgages that have tax deductible interest which is really just a way to increase how much you can borrow and make buying a house easier. If you happen to sell a house and make a gain, well, that is no problem too. If you buy another house for more then no taxes are due on the gain.

We’re the people that elected and lauded the government that made all those changes. The changes even do not make sense. Cheaper mortgages just mean that you can afford to pay more for the same house so housing values rise. That means you need to borrow more, so you pay more interest than you might with no interest deduction. All these laws are meant to make it easier for the poor and middle class buy houses, but I am sure that you know that rich people pay higher percentages of their income as taxes so they get more from this law than the poorer people do. Many small mortgages do not even have enough interest to mean that you use anything but the standard deduction. Richer people also can afford more expensive houses so they get more tax relief on capital gains.

More mortgages led to bundling them together and making the mortgage bonds. This was all backed by the rating agencies which just happen to enjoy special laws and protection. Those bonds were made even safer via government guarantees. Bonds that did not have the government guarantee needed other guarantees and private insurance was created and more exotic credit swaps sprang into existence. We all wanted homes and we wanted our local bank to lend to us and that bank needed money from somewhere. Global investors wanted safety and higher yield.

Leverage, leverage, leverage and it all rested back on the faith and confidence of the United States.

Where did that confidence come from? The faith in the credit of the United States?

It came from one brilliant man. One of the founding fathers. The first Treasury Secretary.

Alexander Hamilton created it.

He gave us the fulcrum right when the country started.

We made the lever that rocked the markets and brought them all tumbling down.

Luckily Hamilton and the other Founding Fathers also left us a system of government that has worked so well for so long that with just a few words and promises, they were able to lift it up again enough to hopefully give us time to sort it all out. But if you need to blame someone and don’t want to point fingers at yourself, blame Hamilton.

Obviously that is somewhat tongue in cheek. The real point is to do a little research before making a snap judgment. Assume that others have agendas that make them want to make motives and who gains and loses as obscure as possible. Tax deductible interest makes for larger loans and more interest which helps the banks and they certainly do not want that to go away. Easy enough to lobby on the supposed benefit to the little people when it really just helps the fat cats.

My Tuesday posts will all have critical thinking as an assumption. The above is an example. Don’t take my word for it. Use your favorite search tool and spend a few hours doing some reading. In your finance and leadership career be informed. Don’t read only things that make you comfortable.

And blame Hamilton for getting himself shot before he could get the rest of his work done.

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine

The Big Short [Blu-ray]

When would I do a pre-release/preannouncement?

Earnings pre-releases always generate some excitement.  Normally they are bad news but mainly because they often are a surprise.   Sometimes the actual earnings are a surprise in some way and yet there is no prerelease.  Choosing when to do a pre-release is a judgment call and I’ll try and explain my thought process behind it.  I am not a lawyer, so this is not legal advice.  If I am considering my options on this topic I always check with our lawyers to confirm my decision, and I highly suggest that any finance professional trying to make that decision also check with their lawyer.

First, as a general rule, there is no need to do a pre-release/preannouncement (I’ll stick to pre-release from now on) even if the actual numbers are obviously different than what was guided in the prior earnings release.  Companies need to formally state that in their earnings release and there is even the technically that until a quarter is done even if you do update guidance there is no requirement to do an 8-K (6-K for Foreign Private Issuers).

A disclaimer looks something like this “Apple assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information, which speak as of their respective dates.”   You also need to identify what a forward looking statement is and the more specific to that quarter the better you are.  If you do that, you can claim the SEC safe harbor and be safe if you do not update even if your numbers end up being different than you guided.

You may not have to, but your investors certainly will think you should.  You may actually expect to come in close to your forecast but others in your space missed badly and investors may be assuming you will to.  You may want to do an offering of some kind and your bankers want you to remove any doubt about the likelihood of you making your quarter.

It may seem simple, any material difference from your forecast and you update.  However, even that is not so simple.  You would think that such a common concept as materiality would have a very specific definition that you could just rely on.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t.

The SEC has a long discussion of materiality in Staff Accounting Bulletin #99:

https://www.sec.gov/interps/account/sab99.htm

“Question: Each Statement of Financial Accounting Standards adopted by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) states, “The provisions of this Statement need not be applied to immaterial items.” In the staff’s view, may a registrant or the auditor of its financial statements assume the immateriality of items that fall below a percentage threshold set by management or the auditor to determine whether amounts and items are material to the financial statements?

Interpretive Response: No. The staff is aware that certain registrants, over time, have developed quantitative thresholds as “rules of thumb” to assist in the preparation of their financial statements, and that auditors also have used these thresholds in their evaluation of whether items might be considered material to users of a registrant’s financial statements. One rule of thumb in particular suggests that the misstatement or omission2 of an item that falls under a 5% threshold is not material in the absence of particularly egregious circumstances, such as self-dealing or misappropriation by senior management. The staff reminds registrants and the auditors of their financial statements that exclusive reliance on this or any percentage or numerical threshold has no basis in the accounting literature or the law.”

So the SEC clearly says you cannot rely on a numerical formula to determine materiality.  One example given as to why not is that even a small intentional misstatement by management may be deemed very material by investors even is the absolute amount is small.

I could post another long paragraph from the SAB, but if I suggest that you just click the link I provided and go read it.  The short answer is that management has to look at all the facts and circumstances available to them and then make a determination of materiality.  You are supposed to consider the different audiences that may see the news with investors always being a primary concern.

You would also think that the FASB would have a specific definition of materiality.  Well, it doesn’t either:

http://www.fasb.org/cs/ContentServer?pagename=FASB%2FDocument_C%2FDocumentPage&cid=1176157498129

That is the new guidance but it is an update to the old Concept Statement 2.

What does that statement say?  It says that management and auditors have to consider everything, not just the magnitude of the item and then decide if it is material.  So, again, no magic formula, completely a judgment call.

So there is no real escape, you have to decide if you should do a pre-release or not.

Since this is about when I would do a pre-release, here is what I think about as I make the decision:

  • I do not have to. I have a safe harbor.
  • Many investors do not invest for the quarterly earnings. So a one time item that does not change the business may not even be worth pre-releasing
  • Is the news or results different enough that your investor base will doubt your integrity when they find out later?
  • Would I personally make a different investing decision if I knew?
  • Is the stock trading in sympathy to news from competitors that does not apply?

In my experience, most investors trust you less if they think you are hiding bad news and are more forgiving if surprised with good news.

As an aside, I have done many bets with the reporting team on what the stock will close at the day after earnings.  The results of the bets over the years show that we never really know what will happen.  Report very good news and guide up and the stock goes down sometimes.  Report what you think is disappointing news and it goes up.  Some days the stock moves on no news and I get a call from NASDAQ and have to tell them there is no news that I know of.

So, unless there is an offering that my bankers want investors to not be asking questions about the guidance around it, it takes pretty bad news or a big change in trading before I would want to do a pre-release.

It eventually comes down to if I can face myself in the mirror or face investors and not feel bad if I do not do a pre-release.  And if I was wrong, then it was my call.

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