Not just finance, hobbies too ....

Author: Michael Page 8 of 9

https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-potter-2689a94

Public company CFO.

Born in Montreal and currently living in the greater San Francisco area.

What does it mean to be a strategic CFO?

I think that the term I hear the most often when a recruiter calls me for a CFO opportunity is that their client is looking for a “strategic CFO”. I also see a lot of articles in Finance trade press on the importance of being strategic or on the new CFO that goes beyond the traditional roles of the CFO.
I’ll start by saying that many of the definitions used by those articles of a “traditional CFO” are quite narrow and probably apply to a Controller or Head of Accounting more than that of a typical CFO. I can forgive that, it makes for a more likely to be read article if you are claiming to provide some new insight, but I do find many of the articles to be shallow and they often do not seem to understand what a CFO has always done.

Quite often one of the main things claimed to be needed to be a strategic CFO is to be forward looking. That is probably the claim that puzzles me the most. Even basic accounting and reporting needs to be forward looking because the very basis of accounting for most companies, that they will continue as a going concern, requires forward thinking and analysis. Preparing budgets and forecasts is a core Finance skill. Some are better than others at building relationships outside of finance and get better insight, but that skill is a basic finance skill. Finance usually sits in the middle of the information flow for any company because Finance monitors cash flow, so building relationships is even easier. So I don’t think being forward looking alone makes a CFO strategic.

Other articles encourage CFOs to go beyond the traditional Finance work areas. This is also somewhat puzzling advice for a CFO because is seems to be part of their job to begin with. A CFO is a member of the senior leadership team and often one of the main outside and inside faces of management. Most of us have worked with a variety of functions as we moved up the ladder earlier in our career. A few of us even came over from other functions and hopped over to Finance.

With all of that good experience, trying to run other functions can be disruptive to the team. Everyone already has one clear boss, the CEO. They really do not need another boss. A good CFO will keep the company accountable to the goals everyone is shooting for, especially the financial goals, but be someone that enables success, not trying to run everything and make some sort of success themselves. You’re often in the role of risk control and doing reality checks if goals are being missed, so the CFO is often trying to overcome the bearer of bad news role that is natural to them.

This type of advice varies with the size of the company and what stage it is in, of course. In a smaller, earlier stage company, the CFO (if they are even called that) often have all of the admin functions under them. It is not uncommon for IT to report to the CFO as well. However, as a company grows and becomes more mature, you typically have several clearly defined functional heads. The CFO role usually gets more complicated as well, first with VC fund raising or with investor relations if the company is public. Treasury and fund raising consumes a lot of time as well. So there is limited usefulness in trying to do every function under the sun while CFO. A well structured expansion of roles can work well as part of career progression towards becoming CEO. I don’t think it is the best option when that is not the case and even when it is the intent, the CEO must back it and be clear about why it is happening.

That does not mean that the CFO cannot be deeply involved in areas outside of Finance. You can help the sales team close deals and reduce currency risk via hedging and ensure smooth revenue recognition by getting the contracts right day one. That only happens when you have a good working relationship with that team. You can help Purchasing in negotiating contracts with suppliers. CFOs make excellent bad cops and you might be able to bring financing contacts to the table that can ease the pain of pushing out terms. You are usually the natural ally for IT and the Legal department. Your COO will probably greatly appreciate any help you can give to drive down costs and help in choosing a location for a new plant. CFOs are often made the leaders of large, corporate-wide initiatives, so there is plenty of opportunity to lead teams with other functions under you.

All of these sorts of activities will make you a better CFO. You will make better informed decisions and your team will also make better informed decisions. Communication will increase and improve. You certainly will be much better regarded and that will make difficult tasks easier. So I suggest that you get out of your Finance department comfort zone and expand your horizons. When you complete that big, strategic M&A , you will be able to integrate and get synergies much easier because you work better with all your company’s functions.

I don’t think all of this will make you the “strategic” CFO your boss and the Board is looking for. You’re probably a pretty good CFO but somehow might be missing the “strategic” designation.

I think to have a proper understanding of what is meant by strategic, you need to go to the root of the word and then go from there. From what I can tell from some quick research, the use of the word strategy in a business context only became popular sometime in the 1960’s. Until then, it was meant only in the context of war. The root is a Greek word that means General or battle leadership.

Wikipedia has a good compilation of the meaning of strategy, from a pure definition standpoint to several noted military strategists and writers such as Carl von Clausewitz and B.H. Liddell Hart. The definitions can be boiled down to using all available and appropriate military resources to achieve political goals.

Sun Tzu said in The Art of War “If you know yourself and you know your enemy, you will not lose one fight in a hundred.”

I prefer Miyamoto Musashi’s discussion of strategy in his Book of Five Rings. His Earth Scroll (the first of his 5 scrolls) contains a long discussion on strategy. He even discusses strategy in business (in the 16th century, well before the 1960’s commonly described as the beginning of using strategy in business):

“In the way of business, there are cadences for making a fortune and cadences for losing it. In each way, there exist different cadences. You must discern well the cadences in conformity with which things prosper and those in conformity with which things decline.”

That is quite a profound statement by someone who was mainly known as a sword master. He tells his readers that a businessman needs to see the rhythm in their business and when you can prosper and when you would tend to decline. If you think about it, the CFO sits in the middle of everything as cash converts to reporting and is analyzed. That gives you the base for understanding the cadence of your business, but only by going outside your own department will you fully comprehend the cadence as numbers tend to lag reality. They are easier to see patterns in, but getting in front of the patterns normally comes from something more outward looking like Sales or Purchasing. So it is not being multi-disciplined or leading many departments that matters, it is understanding the rhythm of your business and when you need to act.

Musashi lists 9 things to keep in mind when trying to be strategic:


1. Think of that which is not evil.
2. Train in the way.
3. Take an interest in all the arts.
4. Know the way of all professions.
5. Know how to appreciate the advantages and disadvantages of each thing.
6. Learn to judge the quality of each thing.
7. Perceive and understand that which is not visible from the outside.
8. Be attentive even to minimal things.
9. Do not perform useless acts.”

I think these are all very valuable if you want to be a strategic CFO. He again stresses the need to keep a broad mind and not just learn sword fighting (finance in our context), not to do evil or useless things, and pay attention to details and learn to look beyond just the outside. I find the instructions to not think of evil things and not to perform useless tasks to be advice that all leaders should consider. Don’t step over the legal or moral line when plotting strategy of the consequences may derail all the company’s plans and you will put yourself and your career in jeopardy. Don’t do useless busywork, spend your time on actions that add value.

Musashi’s advice to learn the ways of other professions was meant more in the 4 professions framework he used (warrior, the peasant, the artisan, and the merchant) but in his own life he certainly farmed and mastered several arts himself. He was a big believer in doing instead of just reading or thinking about something, and he thought that the path to master the way of strategy was not just by becoming good at fighting with a sword. It was a primary activity, but not the only one. I first read his book when I was in my late teens when I first started sword fighting, and it is an excellent book to help make you better at that. However, once I finished school and started my career, I found his advice to be much broader than just sword fighting and he intended it to be broader.

In the context of a large company, Musashi gives good advice on strategy as well:

“Regarding grand strategy, you must be victorious through the quality of the people you employ, victorious through the way in which you utilize a great number of people, victorious by behaving correctly yourself in accordance with the way, victorious by ruling your country, victorious in order to feed the people, victorious by applying the law of the world in the best way. Thus it is necessary to know how not to lose to anyone—in any of the ways—and to firmly establish your position and your honor. That is the way of strategy.”

He makes it clear that you can take knowledge of individual combat and apply it to larger fights, but you cannot rely on just your individual victory. Rather, you need to take the same foundation you developed to win a sword fight yourself, against one of more enemies, and then use the greater resources your army gives you to win a bigger fight. If you are good yourself, think of what you need others to do to leverage your strengths and their own strengths. He says you need good quality people and then you need to lead them well.

Musashi says “It is necessary to know ten thousand things by knowing one well. If you are to practice the way of strategy, nothing must escape your eyes.”

His advice goes back to this theme quite often. He tells you to see, not just look. To understand and use your understanding in a broad way.
“You should not have a predilection for certain weapons. Putting too much emphasis on one weapon results in not having enough of the others. Weapons should be adapted to your personal qualities and be ones you can handle. It is useless to imitate others. For a general as for a soldier, it is negative to have marked preferences. You should examine this point well.”

With this advice, Musashi tells us that we should not have only one weapon or way to solve problems and not just to blindly copy others. He tells us to be versatile and open to what is the best technique for the problem in front of us. Far too often a CFO will try and use numbers to win, and sometimes it takes something different than numbers. Even if you don’t like leverage, borrowing money might be the right thing to do.

Finally, Musashi makes it very plain what the purpose of strategy is, to win.

“Generally speaking, when people contemplate the heart of warrior thought, they consider it simply a Way in which a warrior learns to be resolute toward death. But this is not actually the essence of the Way: what distinguishes the warrior and is most basic in the Way of the Martial Arts is learning to overcome your opponent in each and every event.”

“The true Way of swordsmanship is to fight with your opponent and win.”

“Your real intent should not be to die with weapons worn uselessly at your side.”

If you want to be a strategic CFO, you must be able to help or make your company win. There are no shortcuts or avoiding this. You may not have to leave your opponent on the ground bleeding to death or already dead like Musashi did, but you do need to win.

Business can be very black and white. There are winners and losers. No company consistently wins over time without the right strategy and culture. I will address company culture in a blog in the future, but the management team needs to be able to develop a winning strategy and execute on it.

I think there is nothing more that you boss hopes for more from his CFO is for them to help him be a winner. No one likes to lose, so the basic risk control and proper reporting skills of a good CFO are appreciated, but not losing is not necessarily winning. A winning strategy might be to survive a down cycle, to understand the market cadence that says you cannot prosper right now so you save resources for when you can, but more often winning is marshaling your internal resources and leveraging the external resources you have available to you.

Musashi says the heart of strategy is winning. He says to fight with what you have, not to leave weapons unused. No company is limited to only Finance tools. A strategic CFO knows how to enable or lead other functions when they are needed to win.

Assuming that you agree with me that the heart of strategy is to win, then you might be wondering what you can do to become a strategic CFO and to become a winner. I can tell you that I personally am not 100% sure how to answer that question from my own experience. I have done well at the various companies I have worked at and in all cases we grew and won. However I know that I am still on the path, I have not arrived at the destination. I do think that the advice that Musashi gave on this is quite good.

“See to it that you temper yourself with one thousand days of practice, and refine yourself with ten thousand days of training.”

When you are not doing, you need to be practicing. Develop skills, develop staff, debate and fight practice battles with your team and the senior management team. Experience helps. When the moment comes to execute and you need to make a decision that leads to victory, if it is something you have practiced or at least thought of in advance, then you will be quicker to act and more likely to make the right choice. Even practicing choosing helps.

This has just been the broadest overview on what strategy is and how you can use that understanding to be more strategic in your career. I plan on delving deeper into this topic in future entries in my blog and try to use some specific actions and examples I have encountered in my career. For those that care about my hobby posts, I will also go deeper into Musashi and how his book can make you a better sword fighter. I have a few other topics I want to discuss first, but feel free to contact me and ask to move up these discussions.

Strategy Books (all of which I personally own or have visited)

Website with an online, free copy of The Book of Five Rings

The Book of Five Rings

Books, either in paper or on Kindle (all links go to Amazon.com)

The version I quote here:

The Complete Book of Five Rings

The Complete Book of Five Rings – Kindle version

The translation I first read

A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy – Kindle Version

An account of Musashi’s life

The Lone Samuari: The Life of Miyamoto Musashi

Fictionalized versions of Musashi’s life

Musashi

Musashi – Kindle version

Samurai Trilogy [blue-ray]

Eve Online – My pirate empire

https://zkillboard.com/character/258455591/

Shocking news, for years I was a hardened criminal, leading a large, organized gang of fellow criminals. So wanted that if I stepped into more civilized areas of the Galaxy, I was almost immediately hunted down by local law enforcement. I ran a large extortion racket and also murdered and plundered for no reason other than to see the world burn.

Luckily for me, all of this was inside a massively multiplayer online game (MMO) called Eve Online. The very first link that starts this entry is a link to a killboard. Eve is a harsh game and if anyone that already plays Eve happens upon this post, killboard stats are almost required to show that what I am saying is not complete BS. To give you an idea of what the game is like, most Eve players will see my 95% success ratio and think that I suck. They will look at what ships I was flying when I was blown up and make fun of me.

To take a big step back, a MMO is a type of computer game where you are playing with many other people at the same time. Probably the first successful game of that type was Ultima Online. The first one that really took off and made a lot of money for its creators was Everquest. And probably the biggest and most famous game of that type is World of Warcraft. Most of the games of this type are fantasy based, but there are a few science fiction ones like a star wars game.

Eve Online is very different that most other MMO games. The differences are what appealed to me the most, but it does take a certain mindset and type of player to make it enjoyable. Eve is very much a sandbox style game where the economy is in the hands of the players as much as possible (and every year CCP, the company that is behind Eve, adds even more player control to the economy). It is one giant shared universe (there actually are two universes, one main one and one just for China). Most MMO divide their games into different “instances” and you tend to play on one server and only interact with the other players on your server. You are all playing the same story and what you do in your subsection of the story does not effect the other players. Not so for Eve, since it is all one universe, what happens at any one place effects everyone. If you go to the main trade hub and buy up all of one component, it will not be available to anyone else until players restock it.

Eve is also much harsher than other games in that the base game in Eve is focused on player vs. player combat with real consequences. In many other MMO, if you die you just respawn somewhere else and do not lose much or any of your equipment. In Eve, if you ship is blown up, then it is gone and all the equipment attached to it is either destroyed or attached to your wreck and you can only recover it if you or your side controls the battlefield. Otherwise it gets looted by the winner.

These main elements – player controlled sandbox, one shared universe and game focus on PVP with consequences are what both make Eve very interesting to play and very hard to play at the same time. If you make a mistake, you can lose everything you may have worked months to accumulate. Since there are many areas of the shared universe where there is no law enforcement at all, you either need to be extremely careful or very strong (usually as part of an organized group) or you will die and lose all of your assets. People can scam you. Players can steal from you. All is allowed in the game.

I have not played the game seriously with lots of time in it for several years. I played pretty steady for almost 5 years, but once I moved to China it became a lot more difficult to coordinate time zones and the Great Firewall. Plus Eve is the type of game that can take up a lot of time and I was spending that time on work and now I am spending my free time on other hobbies. Even so, I keep an eye on what changes in the game and did rejoin to play for a little while last year.

The game is so open ended, that it can be hard to explain it fully. What I’ll try and do is give a brief summary of my “career” in Eve and use that as an example of some of the things you can do.

I started a character called Myrdin Potter in 2006 (I think) and my original idea was to be an industrialist/trading character. I played solo for quite a while, running through the automated content available and slowly learning the game. I was approached quite often by people trying to get me to join their player groups (called corporations) but wanted to develop my character more before making a real commitment. I finally was approached by the Ceo of a corporation called Diplomatic Disruption and I joined them.

The game immediately changed for the better. Everyone has a different personality but Eve Online is meant to be played as part of a group. So I encourage anyone who wants to try to join a corporation sooner rather than later.

Our group did asteroid mining together and also ran the automated missions which are two ways to earn ISK, the games currency. Then another corporation declared war on us and what was a safe and well patrolled area by local law enforcement became a war zone for us. We were inexperienced and easy targets. However, I had chosen my corporation wisely and we pulled together as a team and learned how to fight. The combat against enemy went from us losing to us winning and killing them. The war ended and now I had the thrill of combat as part of my game play.

As I was living in Singapore at the time, I had a lot of hours where I did not overlap with others in my corporation and spent a lot of that time going into low security areas looking for trouble. Eve has three main security areas – High, low and 0.0. High security has space cops that will attack you if you attack other players. Low security has no cops, but if you attack other players your security rating is reduced. Eventually you cannot enter high security again. Finally, 0.0 has no security at all and there are no consequences to PVP other than the results of the PvP itself.

While looking for trouble, I ran into a small corporation that was mainly Greek players that were pirates. They chased me all over the place trying to kill me and we chatted in “local” as they chased me. Eventually we made a truce and I started flying with them hunting down other players.

Things snowballed from there. My corporation formally joined with theirs first as allies and then eventually as part of an Alliance. We were able to broker some living space in 0.0 and I tried living out there for a while. 0.0 is the area with the most content and gameplay possibilities but your assets are always at risk from other alliances that can come and take your space away. The group that had given us living space was pretty weak and not long after we were out there another group came and defeated us time and time again and kicked us out of the area and I return to low sec. The game design is quite good in that some systems have a resource that you get via “moon mining” and some locations are quite valuable. That make other groups want them which leads to conflict.

At this point, our Alliance (which was called Chain of Chaos) went to war with another pirate group over a system called Antem. After a long, several month effort we defeated them and drove them away. Moving to Antem was a big change as it was connected to the main grouping of low security systems and it had decent moon mining resources in the area. We eventually ran into another low sec Alliance called Rooks and Kings (search for their videos on youtube) and had many epic fights against them (their video don’t show when we beat them).

I then spent years controlling that space, first as the number 2 in the Alliance and finally running the whole thing. I went from being a soldier to being a fleet commander with several hundred other players depending me to make the right choices and give the right commands in combat. My skills that allowed me to rise up in my finance career worked well in the game and commanding fleets helped me to think quicker and make decisions faster.

I had years of fun in the game and still recommend it. Some days, when I am lying sleepless and jet lagged my pirate blood starts boiling and I want to go back to ruling space fairly but with an iron fist and a gang of blood thirsty pilots on my voice chat and waiting to kill whatever I pointed them at. I not only fought, I also mined and built ships, from the smallest all the way up to capital ships. I ran space stations and moon mined. I hunted and killed other players and I destroyed other corporations, often costing them years of investment.

Game play examples:

I think the easiest way to see what the game is like is via these two videos. The first captures the immersion you can get while playing the game (these videos are all on Youtube. For readers in China, search for Eve Online in Youku and you can find the same videos):

“I was there”

This second one is a good proxy for what fleet combat is like:

Retribution Trailer

And as a bonus video, one celebrating the sandbox nature of Eve Online

Butterfly Effect

And one more showing my Alliance beating Rooks and Kings in small gang PvP

Responding to a comment letter from the SEC

imageThere is a particular circular logo that always worries even the most experienced CFO. It is a simple logo and it means that the SEC has looked at your filings and has some questions. If the letter is something as serious as a Wells Notice, then you need to engage with your outside counsel right away and I can’t really give advice as I am not a lawyer.

Comment letters are a lot more common. You can expect that your filings will be reviewed every 2-3 years and every special filing you make (like an S-1) will draw a comment letter every time. They are common, and the typical result is improved disclosure the next time you do a filing. A bad outcome is the need to restate which can have significant personal and valuation of the company repercussions. A disaster is a Wells Notice and a full legal investigation.

When I first started, responding to a comment letter was much more difficult and you needed to rely much more heavily on your auditors and your lawyers as they had many examples of responses from their client base and you typically had nothing except for anything you had done yourself or within your company in the past. Ever since the SEC made comment letter responses available online, you should be much more capable of answering them yourself or with a lot less help from your outside advisors.

Here is my general advice on what to do when you receive a comment letter.

As a general comment, you are dealing with very experienced accounting and legal professionals at the SEC. The team that reviews filings and comments on them tend to be very experienced accountants and lawyers who read and comment on filings for a living. Their letter is reviewed by even more experienced staff before it is sent to you. The SEC monitors trends and usually every year there are specific areas of accounting and disclosure that get extra questions for just about every filer that it applies to. Unless you do actually have a very severe issue, there pretty much is no intent to “get you”. I have found 100% of the SEC staff I have worked with over the years to be professional and courteous and generally helpful where they can be helpful. They tend to be pretty flexible where they can be.

Expect an iterative process. There was one pretty long letter that I responded to that the SEC accepted all my answers the first time, but usually is takes 2-3 rounds of replies with more questions.

The first thing you need to do is read it through at least once. You don’t need to fully understand or do any deep research at this point, but make sure that you and your Controller have read the comment letter and have a general idea of what is in it and what the main questions seem to be. You will be very quickly involving others in the process, and they will be relying on you, so make sure that you know how serious the letter appears to be. It usually is pretty easy to identify the most important questions, as the examiner normally makes them pretty clear. There might be a question or two that are trickier and if answered the wrong way will cause a spiral into more questions and a much higher chance of restating.

Now inform your boss and the audit committee. This should be done quickly, your process of reading and getting a general understanding should not take long at all and you need to treat every comment letter with a sense of urgency. It is a good idea to inform your lawyers and auditors immediately and I advise that you copy legal counsel on your communications where appropriate as it is possible that the comment letter will result in legal action against your firm or you personally. The SEC does not allow you to use them as a direct legal defense and your work on replying to a comment letter can be discoverable if not protected. If you are not sure what that means and how to protect yourself and your company, seek legal advice.

I always have a very strong sense of ownership of what we file. I have always found that my reporting is better after I get and respond to an SEC comment letter. You will be engaging and using outside help, but you own the comment letter responses just like you own the filings you did. Do not allow the outside advisors to take over the process. They are not always on your side. If something needs to be restated, or if more serious issues come up, they may also have the agenda of protecting themselves. Remember that auditors commonly get sued as well if accounting issues come up from an SEC review. That means that they are very much on your side until they are not. Chances are pretty good that it will not be an issue but do remember that they have their own priorities and that may mean protecting their business just like you are trying to protect yourself and your company.

Now that your boss and the Audit Committee are informed, you should have also formed a small team to actually answer the comment letter. You need to divide up the comments and delegate them to the people best able to answer the questions (and this may be you). Personally, I think the company should write the first draft of all the responses but you may not have the expertise. If you do not, remember it because you have a skill set hole in your company that may need to be fixed later after the comment letter process is done.

Now that the SEC has made other comment letter responses public, you should be able to find the same questions answered by other companies. There is no rule against using other responses word for word. No such thing as plagiarism or copyright when reviewing SEC submissions. If you check competitors or similar companies and they have identical questions, then you know that those questions are focus areas for the SEC this cycle. Look at the answer(s) that the SEC accepted in the past and consider if the same answers or something very close also applies to you.

I cannot emphasize this enough. Prior SEC filings are a huge resource and you should absolutely use them to guide your answers. There are no prizes for brilliance and answering every question yourself with completely original answers.

Dire warnings aside about making sure you understand the risk that outside advisors may have their own agenda, your auditors are a very good resource. If you are using a Big 4 firm, then their SEC advisory group will have people that recently worked at the SEC. They probably have other clients who have received comment letters from your examiner and have more personal read on his or her style. When it comes to very technical accounting questions, your technical partner can be a big help in drafting a response that cites the correct and most compelling parts of GAAP.

I personally like my responses to be direct and to the point. Sometimes your advisors like to toss in introductory phrases like “we respectfully submit”. I never answer like that. Many times the comment letter asks you to enhance your disclosure in the future. Unless the suggestion has some fundamental error in it (which I have never found in any comment letter I have received), the correct response is to say that in future filings you will do what is requested. List out what was requested and what you agreed to. When the SEC asks for support for your current accounting, provide it in a straightforward manner. Your examiner will have several open files and comment letters they are responsible for. The more clearly you write and the more simply you write, the easier you will make it for them.

One final resource is the examiner themselves. Sometimes their questions are not very clear. You are allowed to call them up and talk to them. Like your written answers, you need to be careful what you discuss with them, but as I said earlier, they are not out to “get you”. They are limited in what they can answer. You cannot run a response by them, all responses must be submitted in writing and they can only respond in writing. However, they can clarify what a question means. You can call them and let them know that you are on a tight deadline for a filing and that you would appreciate them working as fast as possible. Sometimes it can help to have a personal relationship when they have to make a final call on an accounting item. If you are more than just text on paper, maybe something will go your way. I know that it even helps me to respond when I have a voice to go with the words on the paper.

Before you send in your response, give it one last read through. Make sure all responses follow the standard format of repeating their question and then responding. Make sure you are sure the questions are actually responded to. Double check the wording to make sure it is direct and clear. Make sure each one has enough detail but not too much that it clouds your answer. If you see an answer that disagrees with a disclosure request, ask yourself why you are not just agreeing to the additional disclosure. Sometimes if you agree then you are actually agreeing to accounting that you do not think is right, but normally fighting over disclosure requirements is just not worth it.

There is an almost certain chance that you will receive another comment letter on your responses that focus on the questions that either were not fully answered or where the examiner disagrees with you or feels that there is insufficient support for your answer. If they disagree, then you are starting to have a problem. You need to be extremely careful with any question in the second set of comments because those are the ones that the examiner is most interested in.

Hopefully you will make it through the response process with nothing more than agreeing to improve disclosures in future filings. Don’t forget to actually improve disclosures when you agree to it. It should be part of your reporting checklist to ensure that you disclose what you agreed to and how you agreed to.

30 years of SCA fighting

I joined the SCA when I was 18. I am in the home stretch to 50 now. So have been fighting for over 30 years. I think I was knighted about 8 years in. Probably could have happened sooner but the editor between my brain and mouth was not as good back then. And, I am sure, some people were just jealous about how handsome I was.

Well, that couldn’t have been true, so better editing is what I will go with.

I consider myself to be a pretty solid knight. Never won a Crown but I have lived and travelled all over the place and I have always given a good account of myself. I try and follow the spirit of the people that taught me and teach anyone who asks. I guess that includes sharing some stories and advice here.

I expect that I will write a lot about the SCA on the blog. It stands for the Society for Creative Anachronism. You can find out the basic information at http://www.sca.org . It is very hard to explain exactly what the club is because it is different for each person in it, but the basics are it is a Middle Ages recreation club. Not quite like the Civil War reenactors because it is very rare that even the theme or the start of a battle is the same as a historical one, but some members of the SCA are as serious about every little detail of the clothes they wear as anyone in any other history group.

For me, the heart of the SCA is that it allowed me to become a knight. My main love is armored fighting. Armored meaning wearing armor and fighting with swords and other medieval weapons. The weapons are made of rattan (a type of wood that is slightly flexible and breaks in a much safer fashion than other types of wood) and the combat is full force and blows are hard enough to dent steel (well at least 16 gauge steel, and maybe 14 gauge. 12 gauge is pretty safe.). The fights are real in that they are not choreographed or decided in advance and it is not just a touch kill system like modern fencing. There still is a certain amount of “counting coup” in the fighting as a hard blow to the head or torso kills your opponent and it is highly unlikely that one such blow on an armored opponent would have actually killed them but the rules do work well enough.

So here is the start of some stories and advice and I will slowly add my thoughts into this blog and may not stick to Thursdays for hobbies only and might post further SCA items on other days.

The first question I get asked quite often by people just starting is how do you learn to fight and get good? I can assure you that I was no athletic standout. I played only house league hockey and baseball growing up and am to this day not the most balanced and smooth fighter out there.

There is a pretty simple answer to that question. You need to actually fight to get good and the sooner you start and the more you do the better you will get.

My personal example is this. I found the SCA in Montreal at a war gaming tournament I was running in my CEGEP days. I was 16 and 17 in CEGEP (community college) so I am not 100% sure how I am stuck on me joining when I was 18, but I guess it is because it was the summer between CEGEP and university that fought for the first time.

My qualification bout was my very first fight ever. I had joined the SCA and managed to get my hands on the known world handbook and the basic armor standards, I had found a place in Montreal that sold rattan and bought enough for a sword. The recommendation then was to split a piece in half and use it, with a little carving, to make a cross guard. So I did that. I did not carve the hand grip.

I made a heater shield out of plywood and attached leather straps to it using some soft leather I had. I made carpet armor and modified hockey equipment to protect my shoulders, elbows and knees. I used hockey gloves to protect my hands. I had no helmet and there might have been one in the entire shire. I walked around in my backyard holding my shield and tried to imagine what actual fighting would be. I hit the tree in my front yard turning it into a pell and tried to swing like the “snap” was described. I did this for weeks, every day, getting ready for the very first event I was going to. Master Tearlach was coming and he was going to run qualification bouts.

I went to the event and borrowed a loaner helm that Master Tearlach has made. I think it was an army helm with sides riveted to it. Tearlach was a big and pretty scary guy to me, but I have always been able,to overcome that. I squared off for my qualification bout. The very first blow on my shield snapped both straps. I had not known that I would,need much stronger leather for straps. No one had hit me before. Tearlach leant me a shield (and that was the fateful day I started using a Tearlach coffin kite) and I went right back out there. I fought. I swung. I blocked. I took the blows that hit me. I was deemed safe and qualified.

After my qualification bout, Tearlach asked for my sword. With one grip he realized that I had not carved the grip. He didn’t say a thing, he just took a knife, carved it really quickly, and handed the sword back to me.

I fought as much as I could that afternoon, basically whenever I could borrow the helm.

Since then I have fought and fought and fought. Practice, tournaments, wars. Pell work. Sometimes still walking around and imagining it. Hours and hours and hours of pell work. Doing it. Fighting. Not talk about it, not posting on the internet about it, not trying to make the perfect armor before doing it. Crappy carpet armor. Cuirbolli and plastic body armor that I made myself (pretty bad looking but protective). Ugly white helm with Templar red crosses which changed to blue after my first Pennsic friendly fire experience.

The love of battle filing my heart, my blood on fire with the glory and exchange of blows. Dropping into the Void and striking my opponent dead from the heart of emptiness.

So my answer to that question is get your ass out there and fight. Borrow armor. Travel. Make it to tournaments and wars. Be the first in armor and the last out of armor. Never stop. Fighting makes you good. Teachers help and the right form makes improvement faster but fight.

Another question I get often from beginners is now do you hold a sword. To that question, I rely on Miyamoto Musashi.

From The Book of Five Rings, The Scroll of Water

“The Way of Gripping the Sword

You should grip the sword holding the thumb and index finger as though they were floating, the middle finger neither tight nor slack, the ring and little fingers very tight. It is bad to have an empty space inside your hand. Hold the sword with the thought of slashing your opponent. When you slash your opponent, the posture of the hand remains the same, and your hands must not tense up. It is with the sense of just slightly moving your thumb and index finger that you beat back your opponent’s sword, that you receive it, strike it, or exert pressure on it. In all these cases, you should grip the sword with the thought of slashing. Whether you are training at slashing an object or in the thick of combat, the way of holding the sword remains the same—it is held with the intent of slashing your opponent. In sum, it is not good to let the hand or the sword become fixed or frozen. A fixed hand is a dead hand; a hand that does not become fixed is alive. It is necessary to master this well.”

I often go back to The Book of Five Rings and it is my personal inspiration on how to be both a better swordsman and a better person. Musashi is brilliant at describing how to fight and his advice translates very well to SCA fighting.

I also can say that I sometimes shift my grip and hold tighter with my index and ring finger and get the whip and direction change from tightening my bottom fingers, but I much prefer the ring and little finger as my anchor fingers just like Musashi recommends.

The Book of Five Rings is very good and I recommend that any SCA fighter read it. Constantly repeated in it is the advice to do what is written. To practice. To fight. Or in another way, learn how to win.

“The Principle of Combat

In strategy it is by the principle of combat155 that you will know victory with the sword. I do not have to write about the details. The important thing is to train well and learn how to win. This has to do with sword techniques that express the true way of strategy. The rest must be transmitted orally.”

My final topic for this week is on speed in SCA fighting. Many beginners think that speed is really important. They get hit by a blow from an experienced fighter and they think it is all because of speed. Actually, in my experience, it is not raw speed that is the most important but timing and rhythm. Time a shot to match the rhythm of how they move is more important than raw speed that ends up right at someone’s shield.

Again, Musashi says it better than I can.

“ Speed is not part of the true way of strategy. When you say “fast,” this means a lag has occurred in relation to the cadence of things; that is what is meant by “fast” or “slow.” In whatever the domain, the movements of a good, accomplished practitioner do not appear fast. For example, there are messengers who cover forty or fifty leagues at the run in a single day, but they do not run fast from morning till night. Whereas, a beginner cannot cover such a long distance, even if he has the wind to run the whole day.

In Noh theater, when a beginner sings following a good, accomplished practitioner,276 he has the impression of lagging behind and sings with the feeling of haste. In the same way, in the drumbeat for “Old Pine” (“Oimatsu”),which is a slow melody, a beginner has the feeling of lagging behind and having to catch up. “Takasago” is a rather fast song, but it is not appropriate to play the drum too fast. Speed is the beginning of a fall, because it produces a deviation in the cadence. Of course, excessive slowness is also bad. The movements of a good, accomplished practitioner look slow, but there is no dead space between his movements. Whatever the domain, the movements of an expert never appear hurried. Through these examples, you should understand a principle of the way.

In the way of strategy, it is bad to try for speed. I will explain. In places such as a marsh or deep rice paddy, you cannot move either your body or your legs fast. This is all the more true for the sword—you must not try to cut with speed. If you try to cut with a fast movement, the sword—which is neither a fan nor a knife—will not cut because of the speed. You must understand that well. In group strategy also, it is bad to think of hurrying up in order to attain speed. If you possess the attitude of mind of “holding down on the headrest,” you will never be late. If your adversaries act too fast, you apply the opposite approach, you calm yourself and avoid imitating them. You must train yourself well in developing this state of mind.”

Speed is nice but relying on speed and thinking that speed is the way to victory will lose you way more fights than you think it well. Be fast enough, not the fastest.

The Book of Five Rings quotes are from a translation called The Complete Book of Five Rings and it can easily be found via online booksellers. There are other translations and most are good enough. I highly suggest you buy and read the book.

Website with an online, free copy of The Book of Five Rings

The Book of Five Rings

Books, either in paper or on Kindle (all links go to Amazon.com)

The version I quote here:

The Complete Book of Five Rings

The Complete Book of Five Rings – Kindle version

The translation I first read

A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy – Kindle Version

An account of Musashi’s life

The Lone Samuari: The Life of Miyamoto Musashi

Fictionalized versions of Musashi’s life

Musashi

Musashi – Kindle version

Samurai Trilogy [blue-ray]

“Smoothing” your numbers

As you advance up the ladder in your Finance career, it is almost certain that you will arrive at a level of responsibility for the numbers where your judgment become key in determining outcomes. At the same time, you will be confronted with one of the two most common issues – numbers not being smooth or what looks like a temporary operations issues that can be fixed by some smart accounting.

There is no requirement to qualify for sainthood while being a CFO. You are part of the management and public image of the company, and investors and employees are relying on you properly present the historical results of the company and the expected future performance. You do not have to be the most conservative person in the country and report and book every possible downside and flagellate yourself publicly over every single misstep. Honesty is important but you also need maturity and respect for your audience. No one expects that you were perfect or that you will be perfect. Being overly optimistic is not good but being overly pessimistic is also a problem. Your investors will be expecting a fair accounting of results and possibilities so they can make choices in who to invest in. An immature management team that does not promote their company somewhat will result in an additional valuation hit because of a perception that management is not strong and does not believe in their company. Even in bad times, if you are still there with the rest of the management team, you must believe that you are part of the solution.  Therefore, mention the issues but focus on the solutions.

I can give a specific example from earlier in my career. The GAAP accounting for stock options granted to employees used to make expensing the options optional. This was an option that Silicon Valley companies did not take. Almost no companies expensed options, but Silicon Valley greatly depended on options and fought against changing the accounting. During that time, I believed that they should be expensed. In accounting discussions with other accountants, I would question the basis for not expensing them. Even with my strong belief that they should be expensed, I did not do it in the books I was responsible for. It simply was not the accepted practice and it was proper under GAAP to not expense options. There was absolutely no reason to “punish” my company compared to others just because I could get on my high horse about the proper accounting for options. Once GAAP changed, technology companies either reported non-GAAP numbers without the options expense or they provide the information so outside analysts could do the same. I provided the information just like others in the industry did because investors expected it.

This is actually an important concept to understand. US GAAP is very specific in many ways but judgment is still a key foundation on the accounting that is done. As I explained in an earlier entry on when I would do a prerelease, the SEC and FASB have both put judgment calls firmly on the shoulders of management. As the CFO, you will be making most of the calls. Other management team members including your boss will come to you with transactions they would like to get booked. You can wrap yourself in a holy mantle of GAAP and always say no, or you can listen to what they are trying to do and try and find a solution.

This brings me back to the original choice I started with. The world is random and bumpy. Investors prefer smooth results that fit an easy to understand framework. Closing the books means making a lot of accruals and valuation judgments and it is really easy to smooth everything out. Be very careful here. Sometimes GAAP really does result in smoother results. If you have a constant production base and higher demand at the end of the year and less at the beginning, you can naturally smooth out the unit cost by building inventory at the beginning of the year and thereby absorbing overhead that otherwise might be expensed and then not overdriving production at the end of the year and over absorbing overhead which results in lower unit costs. You essentially borrow the good news at the beginning of the year and repay it at the end of the year. The accounting matches actual production and you do incur a risk of falling costs at the end of the year or dropped demand meaning your working capital investment may not pay off in better over all results, but the results will be smoother.

Then there is the actual issue that sometimes business just doesn’t match arbitrary quarter end boundaries. It really should not make much difference in the valuation of your company is a deal actually closes January 1 instead of December 31, especially if it was supposed to close earlier and you and rest of the management team forecasted it in good faith to close before December 31. It shouldn’t, but it does. Even if your business does not have big contracts, there might be a snow storm or a flood at your main warehouse and you may miss a week of shipments right at at quarter end. Even in a regular quarter, you may run into a shipping bottleneck and customer orders may not make it out in time even though they were ready.

Sometimes the plant operations group misses their cost takeout targets. Could be an operational issue or maybe the market just didn’t correct quite fast enough but should be ok a few months from now. The shortfall easily can be made up via a slight change in inventory valuation.

Believe it or not, sometimes you get too much good news. A big customer moves up an order and suddenly this quarter is way exceeding goals. Currency moves in the right way and your gross margin now exceeds expectations. Of course, now the next quarter doesn’t look quite as good in comparison and you are wondering if you should burn some of the current good news to smooth out the next few quarters?

Finally, you can often see an issue coming a quarter or two in advance. Does it look like your sales team is making the quarter numbers more and more by borrowing from the next quarter? Did you start this quarter with a vacuum of sales and opportunities because most were recognized the quarter before? Did costs go up and a lot of the cheaper inventory from a prior quarter get used up? If so, expect results that are not smooth or within expectations are probably coming soon.

Like all good CFOs, you probably has a few accounting ideas or changes in the back of your mind that you have been thinking about for a while. Maybe just some tidying up of some overaccruals from prior quarters. Maybe a tweak in inventory accounting that you have been considering. Is this the time you should step in and do it?

I was given some very good advice by a boss early in my career when I had the first exposure to being able to suggest accounting changes. He told me “Never solve an operational problem by moving it onto the balance sheet. All you do is make an Operations problem a Finance problem and when it does come off the balance sheet no one will remember that you were a hero in the past.  You defer changes that might be needed and hide the problem so it might not get priority.” This came from someone that I considered to be a very good accountant who had championed a change in accounting that resulted in a better results for a decade into the future. I had also suggested an accounting charge at the start of the planning process (salvage value) that was accepted by him as a good idea to be implemented. The advice was not by someone that was not able to look for better and more accurate accounting, but from someone that had already made that mistake himself and seen others going it in the past and where he wanted to warn me of the consequences.

So now I always replay that advice in my mind when making a quarter end accounting judgment call. Is Sales now asking about bill and hold after the quarter has already ended to handle that inventory that did not make it over the finish line, or was this planned in advance and did the request come in before quarter end and is documented properly? Is cost higher than hoped for and your COO is looking for more expenses to capitalize into inventory to make the target? Did you just figure out that you beat expectations and now you are looking for extra reasons to boost up reserves that you felt were adequate last quarter or even last week?

I have not been afraid my whole career to make sure that our accounting is as advantageous as the accounting in my industry normally is. However, that good advice early in my career when I was at AlliedSignal still sticks to me. I don’t think that any CFO doesn’t know when the are pushing the accounting too hard.

Try to remember that no one really will think you are a hero today. That entry will be in the background and you will not get any credit for it. Remember that your boss and the rest of the management team will not remember why you capitalized those items a year ago, they will just be mad that you are expensing them now. Remember that your integrity is even more on display when you publish the numbers to the outside world. If you push the accounting too hard you could lose standing with your auditors, if there is an operations blow up and a miss and you get sued, it will come out in discovery later. If the rest of the management team gets cynical about the reported numbers, then they may start messing with them without you even getting involved.

Do the right thing for your company. Try and get the best accounting results where it makes sense and is part of a plan in advance. Otherwise, don’t try and fight the random world too much by double entry bookkeeping. Life is not smooth. Expectations do get exceeded or missed sometimes. Make sure that investors who do their work can at least rely on you and your numbers.

——

Some books on the effects of “Number Smoothing”

Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst

The Number: How the Drive for Quarterly Earnings Corrupted Wall Street and Corporate America

The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron

Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports, 3rd Edition

3D printers are not ready for prime time

The news quite often mentions 3d Printers. 3D printer companies were the darlings of the stock market not too long ago. Mainstream press is full of little interest stories of the latest thing to be printed out. Technology websites and social networks have many mentions of the “Maker” movement and that movement includes 3D printing and printers.

I am somewhere in the “tech” scene or at least in a few smaller segments. You can tell that by a few things), but having the username “michael” on the an old school computer technology site (Anandtech) is a good sign of how long I have been involved. I have seen mentions of 3D printers for years and occasionally checked prices to buy a printer, but they were always well over $1,000 which seemed too much to me.

One day I noticed this campaign on Kickstarter:

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1679800548/dragonlocktm-28mm-scale-dungeon-gaming-terrain/

The Kickstarter ended a while ago, you can find the products for sale here:

http://www.drivethrurpg.com/product/166074/DRAGONLOCK-Dungeon-Starter-Set

For those of you too lazy to click the first link, it is plastic terrain used when playing a roleplaying game to build up a dungeon. If you are not familiar with tabletop roleplaying games like Dungeons and Dragons, the players often use 28mm scale miniatures to more easily run the fights that happen within the game rules. I guess you can say they are the
dolls the players use but the players tend to be men so they would at least claim action figures.

If the miniatures are the dolls, then products like Dragonlock are the dollhouses. I have played in a couple of games where the DM had very nice hand drawn maps that were drawn to scale and I have played in a couple of games with folding cardboard terrain, but I had only seen the full out plastic modeled dungeons in pictures from conventions. The existing products are interesting in theory but quite expensive and hard to use because you never seem to have exactly the right combination of pieces to build what you want. A set that is meant to be 3D printed solves those two problems. The cost per piece is small and you can custom print what you need.

I signed up for the Kickstarter and then started researching the current state of the 3D printer market. I quickly discovered two things. There were a fair number of printers below $1,000 today and that reviews on them were all over the map.

I will save myself typing a long description of the different printers out there. Here is a fairly representative list with examples from owners actually using the printers:

http://fatdragongames.proboards.com/board/24/3d-printers

I selected the Wanhao Duplicator I3 V2. I mainly selected it for two reasons. The first is the cost (it was under $300 for me) and the other was the strong user community that could be found in a Google Group. The brand was recommended to me by my friend Gabriel who runs a small drone business in Singapore called Sensory Robotics (www.sensoryrobotics.com ). I had asked him for an inexpensive printer that would meet the specifications needed and he said if I was willing to tinker the Wanhao printers were popular. I was able to find them direct from the manufacturer via Taobao in China for just under $300 shipping included (they are between $350 and $400 in the USA) so I decided to give them a try. The Wanhao I3 is basically a pre-built open source kit printer. It really is not much different in price than buying parts and assembling it yourself, and the design itself is somewhat well tested.

Before I pulled the trigger and bought the Wanhao, I looked through Amazon.com and read the message boards of many of the more popular printer brands. I was quite surprised at the results. For a product that had been sold to consumers for several years and had made it into popular press, reviews were surprisingly bad every printer brand out there.

I am not talking the occasional disappointed buyer on a crusade, I am talking about bad review after bad review. Even even the Printerbot Simple that is recommended by the Fat Dragon, the company that made the Dragonlock pieces, has quite a few bad reviews on Amazon and in the Dragonlock boards. Some printers appear to pretty much never work. Some printers use proprietary printing materials that are much more expensive than standard printing materials. All the printers I researched had very disappointed customers.

Why so much disappointment? Let me explain a little how 3D printers work and what easily goes wrong with each step.

The first is that all of the consumer level printers (under $1,000 and meant to be used at home) are made by smaller companies. The bigger companies that make printers for commercial use all have quite expensive models that are far out of reach of the average consumer. A cottage industry sprung up around some of the older technology that was open sourced by larger commercial companies, and lots of little start-up, mainly of pretty young entrepreneurs were created. Kickstarter still sees 3D printer designs show up on a semi regular basis and two years ago they were very popular on the crowdfunding sites. So that means lots of people with little or no real manufacturing experience started modifying designs or trying new but pretty much untested designs out on the public. Full of Open Source circuit boards and designs that sort of worked but that really were not close to optimal and often had serious flaws.

Before I get to some of the flaws of my particular printer, let me give an overview of the printers and what is done to make a 3D print.

The first thing you need is an actual object to print. This comes in the form of a computer aided design (CAD) file. Typically this is in an .STL format. You can find these files on various internet sites or you can create them yourselves. Many of the people making the files are new to CAD, are using free and not so powerful CAD programs, and probably do not have a lot of 3D printing experience. That means you get a lot of files that very honestly are not set up well to be printed in the first place.

You load the computer design into a program called a slicer. 3D printing is done layer by layer, and a slicer takes the CAD file and slices it into as many thin layers as you have instructed the printer to use. It then generates a series of commands that tells the printer what to do to actually print the device (generally in the form of a printer language called GCODE) and saves that file. A popular free slicer is called Cura. A more powerful but costly program is called Simplify 3D.

Right away, you may have ruined your print. The programs need to have the exact right settings or the code they write does not work. Some files are not well set up to print but an experienced user of the slicer can either change the orientation, break the object into smaller and easier to print. None of this is well documented and the documentation that does exist is written using terms that someone new to 3D printing is unlikely to understand. You even need to measure the diameter of the filament and input it into the slicer program. I hope you have a digital caliper.

Once you have the file ready to print, you then are faced with the printer itself. 3D printers work by melting plastic and depositing it in thin layers. The printer head (the part that melts and deposits the plastic) needs to move in all three dimensions in a consistent and controlled manner. The surface needs to be flat and level to the printhead and the starting distance between the print head and the surface needs to be small but not zero. The basic way of setting the distance is using a piece of paper to slide under the print head and go by feel.  If you are a beginner, you have no real idea what it is suppsoed to feel like.  The surface must have something to help the first few layers of plastic stick. The print head will move in at least two and maybe three dimensions on rods, gliding on bearings or moved by what essentially are large screws, The file with the instructions needs to be read from a memory card or the computer needs to maintain a good connection for what might be 24 hours or even more.

The rods I mentioned about are often held in place by just a little set screw. Shipping the printer has a good chance of working a rod loose or maybe even bending it. The electronics and cabling are so so on average and shipping may jostle a connection loose.

The standard advice for the printer I bought is to take the extruder assembly apart and replace the gear that moves the plastic filament through it with another one. While you are at it, rotate the heating block to give more clearance when it is at the top. Before you print one item, you have already taken the printer apart. I guess I should mention that the wiring in the older models is defective and can cause a fire. Plus it has been determined that the main circuit board does not properly ground the electricity running through it and it causes temperature readings to swing by about 10 degrees when the heater switches on and off. The suggested fix is to solder a wire from one place on the board to another.

I wish that these types of issues are only from a cheaper kit based one like the Wanhao I bought. However, I would be lying if I said that. I could not find one printer aimed at consumers that did not have a large number of design issues and frustrated users.

Now if you ask me if I like the printer I bought, the answer would be yes. Once I learned and worked through some things, I actually was able (very quickly) to print out the Dragonlock pieces with no issues at all and other files as well. A 3D printer is a fun thing to have and my kids like it and want me to print more things for them. However, these are not even close to being a consumer product. Be prepared to spend time scouring the internet for training tips, to be watching youtube videos showing you how to use your computer and software, and generally spending a lot of extra effort to make the device that you paid for work.

Here are a few pictures of what I have been able to do with my printer.  A well known space ship, some Dragonlock pieces (painted and unpainted) and the printer itself.

image image image

How I approach the outlook section in an earnings release

Every quarter, investors pour over actual results and react to a company’s guidance. Before it appears in the press release, I have to work out what is should be. I often see retail investors wonder where the numbers come from and if companies sandbag or otherwise fool around with guidance. So I decided to write a post on the process I have followed to first support the process when I was a Controller and then to help decide as a CFO.

Helping to decide is important to remember. It is easy to get a little ahead of yourself as CFO during the earnings and forecasting process. Take a deep breath and remember that you are part of a senior management team. Remember that there are two types of forecasts, lucky and wrong, and that the longer period of time being forecasted the higher chance you have of being wrong.

I start my outlook process by asking questions and listening. Of course, I keep up with the business as best I can during the quarter, but the reporting process is where you get to ask questions and explain. Take advantage of that and start to form an idea of the opportunities and threats that are coming up.

I am going to assume that you have a reasonable forecasting system for revenue and cost that you are able to rely on to make management decisions. How the actual forecasting is done is not really relevant (Gaussian Cupola or whatever wizardry is used), you just need something that has proven it works in the past. Units, ASP, expected costs, any expected deviations from your normal SG&A spending. Some form of view on what effect foreign currency is likely to have.

You should use the information from your forecasting system to build a draft forecasted financial statement. This is the raw and preliminary numbers that I rely on to start the judgment process of the outlook I eventually publish. Using that first set of numbers, I start to work through a standard checklist of accuracy items (not judgment yet):

1) Revenue – usually the internal forecast is good at predicting when the goods will ship. What is not considered is when you can recognize it. Double check that. Look at the terms being used and any carry-over from the prior period. Be careful with percentage of completion and double check the reasonableness of the calculation. Make sure that items that require contract analysis have been reviewed and that the terms allow revenue recognition as hoped for. Make sure any inter-company sales are properly treated.
2) COGS – usually you get the latest cost numbers from the factory, but that probably is not what will show up in GAAP. Very often their numbers do not include warranty reserves, equity compensation, inventory reserves and potential equipment write-offs (which may need to go into COGS). If costs are rising or falling there will be a lag as production runs through inventory so make sure that is accounted for. Any inter-company profit in inventory that needed to be eliminated? Inter-company items are often overlooked, so check that again.
3) SG&A – talk through the numbers and see if there are unusual things happening this quarter and make sure the numbers are there. If there is a risk of a large A/R write-off or a large fee that is being paid that quarter that needs to be expensed, make sure it is included. Think about bonus accrual catch-ups, if you are beating or missing bonus targets is there a risk that an adjustment to the accrual will be triggered this quarter. Are there large asset write downs, big A/R wrote-offs that could happen or other such one time items? If so, are they in the forecast (of course, if you are so sure that it will happen, ask why is it not recorded in the about to be reported quarter). These type of forecasts are often just run-rate extrapolations, so make sure any effect of adding or selling a business recently was thought through and recorded.
4) Interest and other charges – normally this should be about the same as prior quarters. Double check to make sure any changes or expected changes are reflected in the numbers. Usually companies do not forecast specific foreign exchange swings but if there already has been a large one or a large one is likely you probably should be modeling here.
5) Taxes – typically this is just a forecasted percentage, but work through the logic of the forecast. Did the country mix change since the prior quarter or since the percentage was last set? If so, you may need a different rate and should let people know to change their rate.
6) EPS – double check the diluted EPS calculation. If you recently added convertible bonds, check to make sure the EPS is on an “if converted” basis. Most people just assume that there only is dilution if the bond is in the money and that is not the way the share count is determined for convertible bonds. If you are close to a trigger point for a large tranche of options to go in the money, consider reminding the reader of that. If they have been outstanding long enough to be vested and around for several periods there may be enough added in to swing the EPS calculation.

That is not an exhaustive list. Companies that sell software and other service type contracts need a robust revenue recognition review process for both actuals and forecasts. The list above is all for accuracy before discussing with the greater team. It is all fine and nice to be a strategic CFO but if the base numbers are all wrong then no one will listen to your business ideas.

If you do find errors during the forecast review, go back and fix what did not work in your process. Double check the actuals as the same people usually work on actual and forecast and if the forecast has an error, the actuals might as well. Reporting is a process and you need process controls and feedback into the process.
I am sure that some people started reading this blog and we’re hoping that I would talk about what system to use, what IT tool I recommend relying on. I am always concerned about over reliance on tools and not enough review and finance judgment being applied. A good tool poorly used just gets you the wrong answer faster. There are quite a few good tools out there and I generally recommend that you use one that works well with your existing accounting and consolidation system. Most of my experience is using the Hyperion suite of tools (Oracle product now but used to be independent), but I have used others as well. Even simple excel spreadsheets can work depending on your business. I do think that if the Excel spreadsheets get too big, the risk of formula errors also grows too much.

So now you have a forecast (I tend to have an income statement and balance sheet ready with a cash forecast from another process as well). You now move to the validation and judgment phase. Share the forecast with a small number of senior executives and start the discussion with them. Do not over rely on email. Call them up and talk through the forecast.

Go through each section with them and make sure they understand what assumptions are being used. Then listen. They know their area of the business better than you. The COO probably just heard that there is a part shortage and production will not be able to hit the cost target or the volume target. The SBU business head might have just come from a customer meeting as has good news. Take notes and ask clarifying questions but now is not the time to be pushing back or disagreeing. If you go into target mode and start arguing why results need to be better, you probably will shut down conversation and miss something.

One of the people you should be talking to now is your boss. The CEO will have even more insights into business conditions and the two of you will be making the public commitment. Review the different options from the management team, weighing factors like personalities, some people are too conservative and some are too optimistic. Reach a conclusion about what you will commit to in the quarter or year to come or whatever period the public outlook will be. Make sure the targets needed to hit the goals are rolled out to the people that need to execute.

One of the last things you need to decide on is the range of expected results you will disclose. You need to pick a range that is typical for the metrics you will be disclosing. I get asked very often if I set the range lower so we can easily achieve it and then “beat” the numbers. In my whole career I have not followed that strategy. It becomes very obvious over time if you do that consistently and analysts will start setting their own much more aggressive expectations. You are essentially lying to your investors about your real expectations and trust in management is often a key metric for investors. You also are advertising less than what you can do and if your competition does not under call as well, you will suffer in comparison.

Never set expectations you know you cannot meet or that would take perfect execution, but do not be afraid to set your own internal goals as the public expectation. If you miss or beat them, know why and explain it. If you set reasonable expectations that a good effort should have achieved and you miss, do not try and hide the fact that you missed. Be honest and outline what will happen in the future to avoid surprises and underperformance. If your internal process to arrive at the number was bad, fix that process. If you set expectations that are way too high, you may get a short term bump in share price but you will be reporting actuals in 3 more months and you will lose in trust much more than what you gained in the short term. Be confident, but not overly rosy or arrogant.

Pay attention to the text explaining the numbers to ensure that there is no disconnect.  If you expect conditions to be tough, make sure the text reflects that.  If you are setting another record, acknowledge it.

In the end, there is no magic formula. You need to do your best and make your best judgment. Make sure your process is robust and repeatable. Be inclusive of your finance team and the senior management team. Don’t sweat it too much, a miss or beat is news for maybe ½ a day if it is a slow news day.

Playing Dungeons and Dragons again – online this time

I was a big war gamer when I was in my teens and when I was in college. Even when I started in the SCA I made time to play role playing games, driving down to the game that our group had every Sunday. I was even the president of the war games club in high school and CEGEP (community college in Quebec that is different than the USA in that it is required and part of the normal university track).

Other than the very first campaign I played in (my cousin Mark introduced me the his friends that were playing and I started with Advanced Dungeons & Dragons 1e), I almost always was the Dungeon Master. I played the classic modules, wrote my own modules and even made the trek to Lake Geneva to go to GenCon. I moved my group to Runequest and Champions, but we still played D&D every once and a while. The NJ gaming group also played D&D and I introduced Champions to them.

The influence of my very early days playing D&D still can be seen on my today as the first paladin I played was called Myrdin the Just (old Andre Norton book that had Myrddin in it and I thought two d’s was a waste and dropped one. Yes, I now know that it is for the th sound in Welsh and that character was Merlin but I did not know that then and Google did not exist). So if you know me in the SCA as Sir Myrdin the Just or online games as Myrdin Potter, you can still see the name that I used to play D&D when I was 13 or 14.

Once I left New Jersey for California and then onwards and outwards, I stopped playing D&D. The closest I got was Magic the Gathering and playing Eve Online. I bought the base rulebooks each edition as it came out and always hoped to find a gaming group, but there never seemed to be time. I still was in touch with my old college gaming group and that grew even stronger once we were all on Facebook. I had been tracking the different online tools to play D&D in the background and had bought the 5e books in the hope of getting a group together but it never seemed to work. My daughter Sarah had played 3.5e with classmates when she was in school in Connecticut and was game to join in but I had no other local friends that were interested and my time split between the USA and China made it difficult.

Then I saw a notice that Fantasy Grounds, one of the two main virtual tabletop programs had managed to get an official license to use 5e D&D. I had been looking a little more at Roll20 as an option as it is web-based, but having the official license and materials for 5e D&D swung me over to Fantasy Grounds (www.fantasygrounds.com and www.roll20.net ).

A few basic things to know for Fantasy Grounds:

1) Native Windows only. It works on Macs via WINE but a little more finicky
2) There is a potentially steep upfront cost. There is a free demo, but that only works for all the players if the game master buys the Ultimate License which is $150 (discounted sometimes) otherwise each player needs a full license which is $40 each or Steam has a 4 for the cost of 3 price. They have a subscription option as well and the ultimate license is $10 a month so you could try it for $10.
3) Other than a recent (and large) holiday sale, the official WoTC content is at list price and there are no discounts if you already own the physical books. The new open gaming license for 5e will make this a lot better as almost all will be included for free, but the modules will still cost the GM the list price. If you want the complete Players Handbook, then you need to buy it at list price.
4) It uses a client server approach so you often need to be able to forward ports for your router or use a VPN to allow players to connect if you happen to be in a hotel room. This is for the GM only and the game passes graphics over to the players so if you have limited bandwidth to upload it could go slowly.
5) The user interface is really bad. It works and as you learn it more and more it gets better but there is no real demo or user manual so be prepared to watch YouTube videos or join and learn from experienced players.
6) Windows are bounded by the master game window, so you are restricted to one screen. There is a way to sign on twice as the GM and as a player so you can have one screen display what the players see and another for your GM screen, but be prepared to always be moving things around to find what you need.

With all the caveats above, it really does a great job of allowing online play. A few other things to remember. It is a virtual table top program. Many things are automated but it does not have an AI built in. So the Adam is going to be moving tokens around and handling combat choices.

Here is what Fantasy Grounds does well:

1) Excellent character creation. With the PHB bought, you can drag and drop a lot of the content into your character sheet. It is not dynamic in that you cannot toggle things off and on and you need to pay attention the the bonuses ultimately set, but once the character sheet is set up properly it is very interactive
2) There is a combat tracker sheet that is very useful for running encounters. It tracks hit points and the dice rolling is smart enough that if you target a creature it will calculate if the creature is hit or not and even does critical damage for you. Initiatives are automatically calculated.
3) Spell effects are well handled and again pretty much drag and drop. There is no graphical effect (no fireball exploding) on the screen but the combat tracker is updated with the correct effect that automatically apply. For example, if a character is Blessed, then attack rolls include the additional d4 automatically
4) There is a party sheet that handles treasure and XP awards quite easily
5) The WoTC modules that you can buy all have player and DM maps. The player maps have “fog of war” via a mask mode which lets you slowly reveal (manually) what the players explore.
6) The pre-made modules I bought all have nicely hyperlinked pins in each room and within the actual text for the modules. Text that is in a box which traditionally to be read out loud can also easily be clicked and appear in the chat window
7) The chat window allows you to type in the different game languages. Characters that can read that language see it in English while everyone else sees it in the language script. You can also type private messages to players

Fantasy Grounds does not come with a voice or video option. You need to use a third party application for that. You could just type everything into the chat window, but that is much less interesting than using voice. I do not find that video is needed but some people find it makes a huge difference.

The basic choices are Skype or Google Hangouts which support multiple video and audio chats, Teamspeak, Ventrillo, and Mumble for audio only (you could even do a conference call into a free conference call system). I decided to use Teamspeak as I could run a free server that supported up to 32 people on my NAS (most of the NAS systems out there that have a decent processor and run Linux can run Teamspeak. Not easy but not super hard to set up). There is a Fantasy Grounds Teamspeak server that many players use as well in case you do not want to set something up yourself. There is a Windows and Mac version of the server if you want to do that. Fantasy Grounds is not terribly intensive to run on your computer, but you might as well put the Teamspeak server on a different computer if you can.

I was able to round up 5 players for my new campaign. Three were from my original gaming group when I grew up in Montreal. One I had met in California via Magic the Gathering. Plus my daughter. I paid for the Ultimate license (was on sale) to minimize the out of pocket spending by the others, but all but my daughter ended up buying the full license anyways. I am planning on running one of the more advanced campaigns that Wizards has released (all have been converted to Fantasy Grounds format). For the very first adventure, I decided to go with the Lost Mine of Phandelver. This is the adventure that comes with the introductory rules and I thought it was best because I have not ran a game in decades and most of my players were pretty rusty as well without 5e experience.

We went through a pretty steep learning curve. I tried to connect with everyone before we played our first session so they could roll up their characters and the process was very slow. Took quite a while to figure out how to enter the scores we rolled properly into the attribute box and we did not realize that the character sheets were not fully dynamic so if you changed races you needed to double check the ability scores as it does not seem to cleanly add and remove ability score modifiers once the first one has been applied. Otherwise the process is very drag and drop from the Player’s Handbook. Drag and drop your race, chosen class, background, equipment etc. and the character sheet is populated. The character sheet calculates all the modifiers from your ability scores and displays it in an easy manner. The final result is automatically used by the program in combat or when saving throws or other checks are being made.

I have included some screenshots of Fantasy Grounds to give a flavor of what it looks like, but to be honest once we started to understand more and more how it worked, the mechanics of it faded into the background and gaming took over. Other than the occasional reminder to target before attacking and the need to retread spells and check rules occasionally, it is what it is supposed to be, a table top. Tokens replace miniatures but otherwise the game plays very much like pencil and paper role playing does.

With Teamspeak and the table top set, we have been gaming. That means creating new stories and laughing and worrying together. Spectacular bad luck in rolling fumbles and near party death situations to the players pulling off a cunning plan and mowing down the monsters like grass with the players a turbo charged lawn mower. Lost Mines is a classic style adventure with a fleshed out town with an immediate threat plus rumors and adventure hooks. You can have multiple rooms in Teamspeak so I can either use the chat window in Fantasy Grounds or grab the player and drag into a new room when I need to to to only them.

So now I am DMing again and playing with friends I rarely get to see in person. My daughter is getting to play in an experienced group. Distance playing actually removes barriers of age and sex that sometimes crop up in live games. So even easier to play in a group. And now she is part of the stories my friends can tell. Like the rogue (really want to say thief but they changed the name for 5e) starting that gaming session twice in a row with a fumble resulting in him tumbling through a door and falling flat on his face in front of the enemy. The over confident Fighter playing on a big screen in front of his kids, managing to get himself surrounded and cut-off by bugbears and almost killed while the Ranger rolls so many 1’s in a row to confound all sense of probability.

We even have the fun of the Cleric who just happens to be a PhD in Chemistry quickly sourcing a picture of the particular flask mentioned in the adventure so we can all see what it would look like (and correcting my pronunciation at the same time). The 5e rules even added many of the house rules that became popular during AD&D to make up for the fact that low level Wizards get so few spells and are so weak in combat that they do not have so much to do. Not that the extra cantrips and such make a difference as our Wizard likes to fire his whole arsenal at the first Kobold that shows up which makes the boss fights much harder. To be fair, I am just teasing a little because it actually has worked out fine as killing the early encounters quickly means many less alarms were sounded. It just is another example of how seamless the experience has been, normal teasing and joking comes naturally.

Overall, I would say that it has been a success. My gaming group is up and running again and we get about 3 hours of gaming in every week. We are getting better and better at using the software which automates some of the game mechanics, but enough detail is shown on the screen such that we can follow the flow of what happens which either reminds us of the rules or teaches us the rules. Which is the last point that I will bring up, Fantasy Ground does not teach you how to play D&D. There is no tutorial built in for D&D. You need to learn the same was as someone playing with pencil and paper – read the rules and hopefully find experienced players. Fantasy Grounds helps in two ways. The first is that it automates a lot of the dice rolls and spell resolutions. The second is that the community forums do give you a chance to find game master who is looking for players or where you can list yourself as new and looking to learn how to play and hopefully someone will contact you. A lot easier than asking around in your high school like I had to ages ago. It is even easier and less expensive to play because WoTC just made the 5e an OGL product so Fantasy Grounds released a new version with most of the content you had to pay for before for free as part of the two paid licenses.

I will also make a comment on the 5e rules. This is a little dangerous because D&D has what are often called “edition” wars and the biggest of these was the move from 3 (and 3.5) to 4. WoTC had decided to make an open gaming license for 3e (and 3.5e which essentially was a tweak and fix on some issues with the original 3e rules). There was a pretty big change from 1e (which I learned) and 2e to 3e. For example, the whole way that armor class is determined changed (AC is how hard something is to hit). In the AD&D I learned, -10 was the best AC you could have and 10 was the worst and there were tables that told you the number you needed to roll on a d20 (20 sided die) and that was simplified into a concept of To Hit AC 0 or THAC0. 3e did away with that and instead the higher the AC was, the harder it was to hit with no maximum. AC became the raw number, before any modifiers, you needed to roll on a d20. The move from 1e to 3e also changed the focus from killing monsters to a more story and character based approach. Finally WoTC (owned by Hasbro, btw) also introduced an Open Gaming License which allowed outsiders to freely use the 3e rules.

The short summary of the edition wars which went from older gamers grumping at newer gamers about how much better the old style games were to a complete fracturing of the market as 3e then 3.5e and the 4e which did not have an open license. A company called Paizo created a 3.5e “clone” called Pathfinder and that game actually surpassed D&D in market share and mind share for almost 7 years. It was another version of D&D but not being released by WoTC (or TSR who WoTC bought and which was the original D&D owner). These edition wars were raging right when Warcraft Online and similar games were setting the standards for the industry and pencil and paper games were fading in relevance. I missed the full brunt of the edition wars because I was not playing D&D at that time, but it was all over the gaming websites I kept up with. The edition wars really fractured the marketplace and made it much harder to find a gaming group to play in. Plus gamers can get really, really attached to the rules they favor and refuse to play anything else.

I would say I am more of an “old school” D&D player because of how I started. After a while DMing 5e, I can say that I like it a lot so far. I had not liked all the sub rules which referred to sub rules for 3.5e because it just looked like an arms race where the goal was to find the best rules to sprinkle into your character. 5e has a fair amount of customization of the different character classes, but at least that is well contained so far. Wizards of the Coast just released an updated open gaming license for 5e so I expect that other VTT can provide much better support than they have been previously.

I will do more posts over time on both Fantasy Grounds and D&D, but I think this is enough for now. If you are hankering to relive your old RPG days, the newer online tools let you do what was impossible not too long ago. Look for posts on my long time foray into online roleplaying via Eve Online and discussions on Runequest and Champions.

Update – The friendly developers at Fantasy Grounds say that their 30 day trial membership is the best way to try out their program and that the recent release of the 5e rules as an Open License has allowed them to add even more functionality without the need to buy the source materials (I still recommend the Players Handbook).  I have been using PureVPN with a dedicated ip option to GM from hotel rooms.

Character sheet – views of a few of the tabs

character sheet - main and equipment character sheet - main and equipment

Combat tracker and example map

combat tracker Map Example

Example monster from the monster manual and party sheet

MM example - Abominable Yeti party sheet

If you are looking for the new rule books, here they are:

Player’s Handbook (Dungeons & Dragons)

Dungeon Master’s Guide (D&D Core Rulebook)

Monster Manual (D&D Core Rulebook)

Who to blame for the 2008 financial crisis?

Hamilton was good enough that I did a review just on it alone, but I recently saw The Big Short as well and decided to write something on both of them.

My background is accounting and finance and I like history a lot. When I moved from Canada to the USA, I decided I had to read up and study American history to get a better understanding of it. Simplistically, I was not really against the British in the American Revolution (Canada certainly is Loyalist) and the Civil War was just the good guys who were anti-slavery against the bad guys who were slavers. I delved somewhat into the Founding Fathers and the Constitution and tried to understand the first few Presidents and how their terms effected the USA. However, that was 20+ years ago.

When the financial crisis bloomed in 2008 (it had been growing for a while before that), many of my friends either were personally hurt by it or people close to them were hurt by it. When people are hurt they usually get angry or scared or both. People who are angry or scared tend not to think well, and they want to react. They need to blame and attack something. Bankers make a good target.

The Big Short and Hamilton both share the same great strength. They take what can be very dry history and they make it very interesting. By the time you finish watching The Big Short you have learned the tools that were used to both make the small problem into a catastrophe and to profit off of it. Hamilton has the battles and such of the Revolution there, but through song and comedy it really shows us the power of ideas and what happens when great men with powerful ideas are at a fulcrum point in history.

So, I bet even before you watched The Big Short, you knew that the bankers were at fault based on politics and news for the past decade or so. They were corrupt. They were greedy. They were liars. And the movie reinforced it. So funny and witty to see the heroes of the movie realize the illusion that everyone was living in. The stripper with all the houses and loans and the real estate agent talking about a gully when there actually was a cliff. The bankers laughing and smirking at our heroes as they made money and tried to pretend that the bets they made were not bad even when there was no denying that they were.

All a consistent message that those banks were the ones to blame and of course where there are banks there are bankers.

Personally, I find it funny that heroes worked for 3 hedge funds. Normally hedge funds are villains too in popular press and politics. In the story, they were smart and right and made a fortune, they took a noble stand and stuck to their beliefs even when others around them doubted them and scorned them. It made for a great film, but I hope everyone knows that hedge funds often are the main financing source for movies and that they just might have a small reason why they would fund and fill up a movie with A-list stars that just so happens to show the hedge funds were the only heroes in a time of greed and evil. It also ignored all the hedge funds that lost a fortune then.

I am going to write some posts in the CFO/Finance Tuesday posts on some of the tools used and I am also going to discuss corporate governance. Discussing tools and basic corporate governance is not really worth the effort without a basic criteria being met. You cannot use tools and make decisions without critical judgment and the ability and desire to do a little research on the item you are making a decision or judgment on.

You may be shocked to learn this, but it was not the bankers and their CDO that caused the crisis. It was you and me. We wanted to own our own houses. We have wanted to have our very own place to own and live since before the country even came into existence. We have voted in people that would facilitate that for generations. All those bankers and government people, they are us. Our neighbors. People we do business with and who probably have helped us all our lives (credit cards are a banking innovation).

The base laws that were changed and pushed us over the edge were passed by Bill Clinton with a Republican Congress. He repealed the Glass-Steagall Act that kept different banking functions separated and controlled the size of banks (which at the time was viewed as making American banks less competitive on the world stage). He also signed the Community Reinvestment Act that placed additional pressure on lending into low income areas. He signed a law that removed federal regulation on some credit swaps that became important leverage tools that later blew up.

Clinton and the Republican congress are not solely to blame, of course. There are whole books on this but essentially laws were passed that made possible to have the Federal government guarantee mortgages. Mortgages that have tax deductible interest which is really just a way to increase how much you can borrow and make buying a house easier. If you happen to sell a house and make a gain, well, that is no problem too. If you buy another house for more then no taxes are due on the gain.

We’re the people that elected and lauded the government that made all those changes. The changes even do not make sense. Cheaper mortgages just mean that you can afford to pay more for the same house so housing values rise. That means you need to borrow more, so you pay more interest than you might with no interest deduction. All these laws are meant to make it easier for the poor and middle class buy houses, but I am sure that you know that rich people pay higher percentages of their income as taxes so they get more from this law than the poorer people do. Many small mortgages do not even have enough interest to mean that you use anything but the standard deduction. Richer people also can afford more expensive houses so they get more tax relief on capital gains.

More mortgages led to bundling them together and making the mortgage bonds. This was all backed by the rating agencies which just happen to enjoy special laws and protection. Those bonds were made even safer via government guarantees. Bonds that did not have the government guarantee needed other guarantees and private insurance was created and more exotic credit swaps sprang into existence. We all wanted homes and we wanted our local bank to lend to us and that bank needed money from somewhere. Global investors wanted safety and higher yield.

Leverage, leverage, leverage and it all rested back on the faith and confidence of the United States.

Where did that confidence come from? The faith in the credit of the United States?

It came from one brilliant man. One of the founding fathers. The first Treasury Secretary.

Alexander Hamilton created it.

He gave us the fulcrum right when the country started.

We made the lever that rocked the markets and brought them all tumbling down.

Luckily Hamilton and the other Founding Fathers also left us a system of government that has worked so well for so long that with just a few words and promises, they were able to lift it up again enough to hopefully give us time to sort it all out. But if you need to blame someone and don’t want to point fingers at yourself, blame Hamilton.

Obviously that is somewhat tongue in cheek. The real point is to do a little research before making a snap judgment. Assume that others have agendas that make them want to make motives and who gains and loses as obscure as possible. Tax deductible interest makes for larger loans and more interest which helps the banks and they certainly do not want that to go away. Easy enough to lobby on the supposed benefit to the little people when it really just helps the fat cats.

My Tuesday posts will all have critical thinking as an assumption. The above is an example. Don’t take my word for it. Use your favorite search tool and spend a few hours doing some reading. In your finance and leadership career be informed. Don’t read only things that make you comfortable.

And blame Hamilton for getting himself shot before he could get the rest of his work done.

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine

The Big Short [Blu-ray]

Hamilton – My Review

I was in NYC recently, traveling to attend an investor relations conference. My 18 year old daughter had one more week of winter break left so I took her along with me. She likes Broadway musicals and I was pretty sure she would want to go to at least one while we were there (I also took her to see a hockey game). I asked her what was the show she wanted to see the most and she told me Hamilton.

Everyone has blind spots. I am not that into musicals and plays, and I had not heard of it before. She explained that it was a hip-hop musical about Hamilton the Founding Father. I don’t get to spend as much time with my kids as I would like to and I could tell that she really wanted to go. She told me that it was sold out for months and that she would understand if we couldn’t go.

I checked with the hotel concierge and she confirmed that the show was truly special and that tickets were available from brokers. They would be expensive but she probably could get me one. (as an aside, they were also available via Stubhub and I am sure on other ticket platforms). The tickets were expensive but I decided that it would be a special birthday present for Sarah and I bought them.

So I went to the show with her and did not spend any time other than a quick read on the creator of the show (Lin-Manual Miranda). I was completely unprepared for what I was about to see.

The stage is plain. Bricks in the background. Simple wood beams making a loft in the background. The staging is simple through the whole show. Nothing more than chairs and tables to suggest the various rooms the musical is set in. There is one battlefield scene and several duels and the simple and open stage is well used to put you into each scene.

The opening number – Alexander Hamilton – introduces you to both the musical style of the show and to some of the main characters. No hiding the ending, Aaron Burr introduces himself as the one who shot Hamilton and there is more than one woman that introduces herself as loving him. The story is also clear – Hamilton rises from nothing and changes the world.

Two other things are also made clear. The first is that calling it a “hip-hop” musical is not really correct. The show starts off with rapping but even the opening number is a mixture of rap and traditional Broadway “big show” singing. There are a variety of musical styles in the show. I am nowhere near an expert and typically not even a huge fan of Broadway musicals, but I have been to enough to easily detect the foundation on which the music is based on. There certainly is a fair amount or rap, in particular “bragging” rap where different founding fathers claim superiority. Even the hip-hop ranges in years and there is older and newer styling for the songs.

The second is that the casting is completely color-blind. With the heavy leaning towards hip-hop, many of the cast are black but it is mixed. It actually helps to breakdown the traditional views of the Founding Fathers and helps immerse you in the musical. Even if you have better than average knowledge of the history of the time, no one looks that any real historical character (except maybe King George) which I found helped me concentrate on and enjoy the show.

The show itself is an unabashed love affair for both America and NYC and the opportunity you get while here. The very first line of the very first song makes it clear.

[Burr]
“How does a bastard, orphan, son of a whore and a Scotsman,
dropped in the middle of a forgotten spot in the Caribbean by providence
impoverished, in squalor
Grow up to be a hero and a scholar?”

There are references to Hamilton’s very humble upbringing throughout the show and that is historically accurate. Not so much was written about him because he died comparably young and his enemies outlived him. I knew the very basics (hard not to know who Hamilton was and what he did if your career is finance) and a little more from the John Adams mini-series, but the musical was actually quite historically informative.

The entire show is singing. I can’t recall that many if any truly spoken lines.

The lyrics for all the songs, with annotations and the creator’s blessing can be found here:

http://genius.com/albums/Lin-manuel-miranda/Hamilton-original-broadway-cast-recording

The songs in the show vary in tone with most characters getting their own special style. Washington sounds very different than Hamilton and Burr. Jefferson also has a distinctive style. Of course, King George has his very own and completely different musical style. As befits the British monarch, British invasion pop and he sings a song as if he is a jilted lover. There is even a few good rap battles between Jefferson and Hamilton in the cabinet meetings.

The musical is both inspirational and absolutely heartbreaking. Hamilton had several tragedies in his life and most were self inflicted. He pushed too hard on people and that comes through in the songs and events in the musical. Hamilton is the most directly insulting to others in his lyrics and his youth and brashness really comes through in the first act.

The choreography and costuming is spot on. The dancing is simple and energetic. The character in focus is the one that stands out in each scene. I have seen other musicals that get very carried away with overly intricate dancing that distracts from the story. Hamilton has good dancing but it blends seamlessly into the story and does not look like it is forced there because someone wanted a big dance number.

The costumes also are straightforward and invoke the period. As Hamilton becomes more successful his dress improves but it is easy to see that he is more brash and unsure of himself when you compare his dress to the older and more experienced characters.

The musical is mainly set in NYC (with a scene in Yorktown and a couple of duels just across the water in New Jersey). Many people forget that NYC was the original capital and Hamilton is a good reminder. There are quite a few nods to NYC being the place where immigrants arrive and make things happen. There is a reminder of how much Revolutionary USA owed to the French and France.

I want to pause a moment here and reflect on the fact that I am writing a review about a smash Broadway hit and I am discussing history in the review. The show is such a genius production that it actually presents a pretty accurate version of important history in a way that you are captivated and drawn in. Many of the basic questions that were argued then are there in the musical. Mercantile North vs. agrarian South. Centralizing credit and currency in a Federal Union vs. every state for themselves. Slavery (Hamilton was opposed to slavery and he calls out Jefferson on his status as a slaver). The fact that writing and getting the Constitution ratified and the USA actually established was not a forgone conclusion after the Revolution.

I was very impressed when they had a song where Washington had Hamilton write his fair well speech. For all that he did as the General that won the war and the early days as the first President, perhaps his greatest legacy is that he gave up power and let someone else get voted into power by the people. There could have been a new line of “Kings” established, but each of the original Presidents followed his lead and let the voters decide (term limits did not actually come into existence for a long time afterwards).

So if you American history is rusty or weak, you can justify going to see a Broadway musical as a history refresher.

I also enjoyed the nods to the banking system and the placement of New York City into the heart of it. Hamilton trades away NYC being the capital in order to get his first and foundation bill passed. In fact, “The Room Where it Happens” is one of my favorite songs in the show.

Again, a song about political deals being cut behind closed doors is one of the show stopper tunes in the musical. It fits right in. It is sophisticated – Burr laments the closed door approach but also shows that he is not just worried about the way it happened but also he does not like not being one of the people in the room making it happen. It also shows Hamilton’s genius. He trades something of small value to him (and probably actually of small value) in order to get what he really thought was important done. By giving up the location of the capital to the leaders of the Southern block that had stalled his Treasury bill out, he gains the actual bill and the power to mold the future economic strength of the country the way he sees fit. All in the form of a very engaging song. The song is even mainly sung by Burr who was not there and the people that were there only have bit parts.

The staging of “The Room Where it Happens” shows how deep and strong the production actually is. The happenings are presented by Burr and the three in question are in the background “behind closed doors”. The other actors are there and sing a few parts of the song, but they are in the background. The words that he is singing make it appear that he is complaining about the lack of openness and transparency but the inflection and timing of the words make it obvious that his real complaint is that he is not in the room.

“BURR
The immigrant emerges with unprecedented financial power
A system he can shape however he wants
The Virginians emerge with the nation’s capital”

My knowledge Broadway musicals is limited (I did catch the reference when Washington was introduced as a Modern Major General) and I like some hip-hop and rap but it certainly was not the music I grew up listening to. If you want to see some of the references and influences for each of the songs, the link I posted is a great source.

I also am not an expert on dancing, but I can tell when the motion is well choreographed. The stage is well used and the characters do not just stand there and sing, they move and the others in the cast also move. The movement is not overdone and distracting, it is movement of focussed energy.

I certainly highly recommend that you see the show. The Richard Rogers theatre is pretty small and as long as you on not on the very sides, even the seats pretty far back are good. It is very hard to get tickets now, so you probably will have to rely on ticket brokers or websites like Stubhub or Ticketmaster resale. I thought it was well worth the exaggerated price.

The stars were also very gracious about signing autographs and posing for pictures despite the huge crowd waiting at the stage door.

Hamilton (Original Broadway Cast Recording)(Explicit)(2CD)

Alexander Hamilton

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